There’s a real possibility housing prices might go down or sideways for a decade or more.
Between high interest rates, depopulation, government intervention regarding foreign investment, and new housing tech that makes older houses worth less, there may be a new normal in which residential real estate doesn’t appreciate for a long time.
It's absolutely possible that it's artificially high right now since it has risen so much. With a big jump, you can never tell whether it's the right amount, too little, or too much.
But fundamentally, supply is short due to years of falling behind on building it after the ~2008 mortgage crisis. It's going to take a really long time to catch up on that backlog. There's a relatively low maximum percentage you can increase the supply each year.
And now that mortgage rates are higher again and there are recession fears, investors may not be as excited about putting their money into housing construction. So we will have less of a push in the next few years to close that supply gap.
So I think the prices may fall or stagnate, but I doubt the bottom will fall out of real estate.
IMHO, another factor is that the pattern of development has changed. For a long time in the US, the pattern was sprawl, which presents few barriers to building huge amounts of housing because the land is cheap and maybe even in some unincorporated area with no red tape. Now, many people prefer density (or at least not sprawl), which means the housing that's in demand is more redevelopment and infill than giant new subdivisions. That's more tedious, more expensive, and more regulated, so it will happen more slowly. So another reason why supply is limited.
If population starts to drop, people are going to be absolutely astounded to realize a house is a depreciating asset, and if the land isn't increasing in value to make up for it, it becomes a cost-center.
Probably an accumulation of a lot of tech where it's cheaper to buy new than refurbish/maintain: New roof, new wiring, new windows, new facade, updating to latest building codes.
Insulation. In the UK an older £250k house could have £2k additional heating for equivalent comfort. Over decades that adds up. If climate change makes summers hotter so cooling systems/AC need retrofitted and winters colder, that'll be more pressing.
Modular factory built homes might be possible to disassemble or extend, allowing reconfiguration that people might come to demand.
This will also be pushed by other trends, aging populations mean people might demand more housing that better suits their needs and new is cheaper than adapting.
Between high interest rates, depopulation, government intervention regarding foreign investment, and new housing tech that makes older houses worth less, there may be a new normal in which residential real estate doesn’t appreciate for a long time.