Laptop batteries and EV batteries have a completely different performance profile. The data we have suggests that the battery will retain 80% of its maximum capacity for about as long as the rest of the car is expected to survive.
Most people don’t buy new cars. Most people buy second hand vehicles. They now risk degraded batteries and a huge incidental cost.
My car cost me £5000 second hand. The cheapest EV battery replacement here is £12,500. I could write that car off twice for the price of a battery and still have enough money to go on holiday.
When you buy the bottom end of the second hand EV market which is realistically what most people will have to spend on, you’re looking at the 160 mile range leaf. With an 80% battery that’s 128 miles of range. Which is near useless for the average user. I couldn’t even drive to see my mother in it without charging twice on the way.
I will not own an EV as the incidental risk trade off is too high and the up front cost of a new EV is too high.
My EV is 1/10th of the cost to run and maintain than my diesel car. I’m more than happy to spend an extra 20-30 min charging on a 4 hour drive when I choose to drive the EV.
My diesel has also done just over 340,000km and it’s pretty shot. Hard to start on cold mornings and I’ve had to sort out some leaky injectors and seized joints on the driveshaft. There’s another couple of hundred thousand kilometres left at best.
The EV is coming up to 100,000km and it stills drives just as spritely as the day I got it. The battery is showing 100% state of health and I’m convinced it’ll happily do a million kilometres or more.
They do below a certain point yes. But at that point you just buy another one and drive it until the engine falls out. This is how most people operate.
On my vehicle an engine costs about £1275 to put a refurb in it. Gearbox about £550.
There is no rust anywhere on my 8 year old vehicle.
People run like this out of financial necessity. They don’t have enough income to run an EV.
So batteries on EVs generally don't fail dramatically, they slowly lose range over time.
So someone buying a used EV will presumably buy something with enough range for them to get around, and then over time if they notice the range starting to decline to the point that it might be an issue, they'll have some time to save up & trade in their car for a better one. Their current car won't be worthless on the used market and someone who doesn't have as large of range requirements (e.g. a 2nd car for commuting) will still buy it.
There are other issues that can prevent an EV from charging at all, but they have usually cheaper fixes than a whole battery pack replacement like you're talking about.
May be UK is especially cheap for car repair but costs you mention are unrealistic for major repairs on those components. I had gearbox problems on 10 year old car and independent mechanic suggested to sell car to scrap yard - in his opinion trying to fix it will end up costing more than car is worth. It was before Covid inflated used car prices though.
From quick check in google: If you are extremely lucky, you’ll get your transmission replacement completed for $2,500 all in. If yours is one of the more expensive types, it could easily range to $6,000 or even more.
EVs aren't for everyone, especially if you have long range requirements. My daily work commute is under 6 miles round trip.
That said, 20% degradation after 10 years isn't a huge deal for me. I'm sure in that time, battery replace/refurbishment will be much cheaper. There is a company in Oregan that will replace a 40kwh Leaf pack for $7000 .
> Just out of curiosity: is a car really the best option for a 6 mile round trip? That's a distance where I'd consider walking.
Walking!? So 1.5-2hrs each way to get to work? On really hot or cold days, that’s going to be torturous. Had you suggested riding a bike or maybe a scooter/moped I’d have not said anything, but suggesting folks walk that distance felt a bit off the mark.
We have two combustion cars, a Corolla and an Outback. The Corolla gets everyday use, the Outback goes on long trips or if I need to haul some furniture.
An EV to replace the Corolla would be ideal. Perfect spot for this scenario.
The main cost for cheap 2nd hand cars is the fuel in my experience. So you can have a cheap fuel commuter car and a "real" car for trips and towing your boat.
Requires parking for two cars though. But since we are talking about an EV it requires a house anyways since most apartments have no charging.
Yeah but you can manage the fuel within your cash flow. Difficult to get credit and manage the purchase of a large expensive car. And having two cars is too expensive as well.
Sounds perfect for the average American as a daily commuter / errands car. Yes, no road trips without inconvenience, but that still doesn’t make it useless, it makes it a great secondary car instead.
> The data we have suggests that the battery will retain 80% of its maximum capacity for about as long as the rest of the car is expected to survive.
How long is the rest of the car expected to survive?
I rarely do long range driving, and my commute was short for years (a couple miles each way) for about a decade before we switched to work from home a couple years before the pandemic, and I'm not interested in travel so my usage is not going to up much when I retire in a few years. I anticipate a need for at most 100k over the rest of my life, which almost certainly will be less than 25 years.
Would a current EV be likely be able to handle that with just reasonable maintenance?
I'm currently driving a 2006 Honda CR-V that I bought new and could probably reasonably keep driving another 10-15 years. That's what I want out of an EV.
Big batteries have much more sophisticated battery management systems that are designed to be as kind as possible to the cells. Also they reserve a capacity of 10% on either side, leaving 80% usable capacity available to the user. Li-Ion batteries don't like being fully charged or fully discharged.
Also due to their capacity most EVs are charged at about 0.1C whereas phones (especially with rapid chargers) are charged anywhere between 1C and 3C.
