Here's how I would describe what is happening (very different from "theme" of this post).
1. Ukraine had an antiquated military at the start of the war - old Soviet technology with old Soviet ammunition.
2. Ukraine has used almost all of its ammunition compatible with these weapons, and lost a huge amount of manpower (30000+) including their best troops, and lost 50%+ of its fielded equipment.
3. Prior to the losses and exhaustion detailed in #2, European and NATO backers collected and distributed ammunition and equipment compatible with Ukraine's existing weapon stock.
4. Since exhausting existing equipment and possible sources of Soviet ammunition, Ukraine's backers have switched to supplying Western made weapons. This isn't because they are "better" but because they can be maintained and ammunition will be available for protracted war this is projected to be.
5. Ukraine right now is in a very challenging situation. It has limited equipment of either kind. Their soldiers do not know how to use and maintain the new equipment and don't have much time (due to manpower shortage) to get trained up on completely new equipment and standards.
6. Either way, switching to new weapons platforms is necessary since Russia isn't about to supply Ukraine with more compatible ammunition.
7. Because of the necessity, Ukraine's leadership is "hyping" Western weapons to its people. It's got to tell a story about how victory is around the corner so that morale isn't lost during this transitional period.
8. Western media is picking up on this "hype".
HIMARS aren't going to win the war. This isn't a war of tech superiority. This is a war of grinding attrition. Russia has Ukraine outmanned and outgunned. Western equipment is the only path forward so that Ukraine's force posture doesn't completely atrophy.
The course of the war will be dictated by how either side's logistical, supply, ability to direct and surge force, and the strains on these outlast the other.
> HIMARS aren't going to win the war. This isn't a war of tech superiority. This is a war of grinding attrition. Russia has Ukraine outmanned and outgunned. Western equipment is the only path forward so that Ukraine's force posture doesn't completely atrophy.
They won't win them alone but they will make a big difference. Theres a reason that the number of ammo depots hits in the past week have gone up drastically, HIMARS has allowed Ukraine to hit targets that would have otherwise been reserved for the few Tocha-U's that they have.
If Ukraine is successful in starving Russia of ammo then they win the war.
While I mostly agree with your overview, the OP pointed out that this article came from within Russia. Going back decades, Russians have felt some intimidation at the thought of superior Western arms technology. I read an interview with a Russian field officer who indicated that this technological edge is very much on their minds in Ukraine. So, it may be that Russians are also intended targets of this hype.
The sad truth, of course, is that the Russian ability to produce things that go boom in quantity and deliver it to the battlefield far outstrips the collective West's capacity.
And that goes back to the different approaches highlighted during the space race. While the US spent millions developing a pen that would work in space, the Russians just used a pencil.
Neil, you’re peddling a long-discredited trope as if it were truth. Pencils are not used in spacecraft because of the risk of graphite (which conducts electricity) fragments getting into equipment and causing potentially deadly failures.
The evidence so far in Ukraine does not support your first statement either.
"pencils are not used in spacecraft because of the risk of graphite (which conducts electricity) fragments"
They used wax pencils, or crayons as we call them, until they got the space pen technology without spending on it.
"The evidence so far in Ukraine does not support your first statement either."
The evidence in the Ukraine is that Russia is making ground. Steadily, slowly at the speed of the replacement mechanisms within their production systems.
>...They used wax pencils, or crayons as we call them, until they got the space pen technology without spending on it.
It looks like both the Soviet Union and NASA got their pens from Fisher:
>...the Fisher pen was developed using private capital, not government funding. The development of the thixotropic ink cost Paul Fisher around $1 million (equivalent to $8.6 million in 2021).[4] NASA – and the Soviets[3][5][6] – eventually began purchasing such pens.
1. Ukraine had an antiquated military at the start of the war - old Soviet technology with old Soviet ammunition.
2. Ukraine has used almost all of its ammunition compatible with these weapons, and lost a huge amount of manpower (30000+) including their best troops, and lost 50%+ of its fielded equipment.
3. Prior to the losses and exhaustion detailed in #2, European and NATO backers collected and distributed ammunition and equipment compatible with Ukraine's existing weapon stock.
4. Since exhausting existing equipment and possible sources of Soviet ammunition, Ukraine's backers have switched to supplying Western made weapons. This isn't because they are "better" but because they can be maintained and ammunition will be available for protracted war this is projected to be.
5. Ukraine right now is in a very challenging situation. It has limited equipment of either kind. Their soldiers do not know how to use and maintain the new equipment and don't have much time (due to manpower shortage) to get trained up on completely new equipment and standards.
6. Either way, switching to new weapons platforms is necessary since Russia isn't about to supply Ukraine with more compatible ammunition.
7. Because of the necessity, Ukraine's leadership is "hyping" Western weapons to its people. It's got to tell a story about how victory is around the corner so that morale isn't lost during this transitional period.
8. Western media is picking up on this "hype".
HIMARS aren't going to win the war. This isn't a war of tech superiority. This is a war of grinding attrition. Russia has Ukraine outmanned and outgunned. Western equipment is the only path forward so that Ukraine's force posture doesn't completely atrophy.
The course of the war will be dictated by how either side's logistical, supply, ability to direct and surge force, and the strains on these outlast the other.