"""Scarcity, as that term is used in social psychology, is when things become more desirable as they appear less obtainable.
Buyers for supermarkets, told by a supplier that beef was in scarce supply, gave orders for twice as much beef as buyers told it was readily available. Buyers told that beef was in scarce supply, and furthermore, that the information about scarcity was itself scarce - that the shortage was not general knowledge - ordered six times as much beef. (Since the study was conducted in a real-world context, the information provided was in fact correct.) (Knishinsky 1982.)"""
That doesn't seem like a flaw of human psychology; aside from perhaps believing the researcher's lies.
If you normally buy a pound of beef per week, and you believe that the price will be much higher next week, it's rational to buy extra and freeze it.
HDs are somewhat of a special case, because it's really just a supply interruption. By the time I need another hard drive, the prices will probably be back to normal or perhaps even lower. But it's still not irrational to think: "should I try to get one of those while I can?".
But it's still not irrational to think: "should I try to get one of those while I can?"
If you have a use for one, you could think "is the current price still good enough value for me", and if you have no use for one, then you could ignore it.
It's when you have no specific use for one and weren't planning to buy one, but now you're thinking "should I try to get one of those while I can?", that it seems like a psychological flaw.
"If you have a use for one, you could think "is the current price still good enough value for me", and if you have no use for one, then you could ignore it."
It's about the future, too. If you think that the value to you in 2 months will exceed the price today, then it is rational to purchase it now (even if the value to you today is zero). It becomes more urgent when you think that the price in 2 months (when you need it) will be significantly higher.
Additionally, humans are risk-averse, and a known price today is less risky than an unknown price in the future.
HDs might be a special case as you can't tell when they break down.
You are always in a position where you might need one tomorrow. Except if you keep piles of spare, but as HDs used to get cheaper constantly, that'not a common strategy for price sensible buyers.
Reminds me of the great toilet paper shortage of 1973.
After a popular evening talk show host made a joke that there was an acute shortage of toilet paper in the United States. The next morning, 20 million viewers bought up all the toilet paper they could find. By noon that day, most stores were out of toilet paper for months.
http://lesswrong.com/lw/oz/scarcity/
"""Scarcity, as that term is used in social psychology, is when things become more desirable as they appear less obtainable.
Buyers for supermarkets, told by a supplier that beef was in scarce supply, gave orders for twice as much beef as buyers told it was readily available. Buyers told that beef was in scarce supply, and furthermore, that the information about scarcity was itself scarce - that the shortage was not general knowledge - ordered six times as much beef. (Since the study was conducted in a real-world context, the information provided was in fact correct.) (Knishinsky 1982.)"""