Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login
WHO declines to label monkeypox a global emergency (science.org)
75 points by 1sembiyan on June 28, 2022 | hide | past | favorite | 61 comments



The actual statement: https://www.who.int/news/item/25-06-2022-meeting-of-the-inte...

"The Committee was concerned about the potential for exacerbation of the stigmatization and infringement of human rights, including the rights to privacy, non-discrimination, physical and mental health, of affected population groups, which would further impede response efforts."

This is giving me strong early 2020 vibes . . . basically, "let's not declare an emergency to avoid stigmatization".


Appreciate the link to the primary source. Also from that statement:

>The Committee discussed key issues related to the outbreak, including: current observations of plateauing or potential downward trends in case numbers in some of the countries experiencing outbreak early on...

>...The Committee recognized that monkeypox is endemic in parts of Africa, where it has been noted to cause disease, including fatalities, for decades...

>...However, the Committee unanimously acknowledged the emergency nature of the event and that controlling the further spread of outbreak requires intense response efforts...

>...The Committee considered that the occurrence of one or more of the following should prompt a re-assessment of the event: evidence of an increase in the rate of growth of cases reported in the next 21 days, both among and beyond the population groups currently affected; occurrence of cases among sex workers; evidence of significant spread to and within additional countries, or significant increases in number of cases and spread in endemic countries...

My reading is that the primary reason why a "Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)" wasn't declared is because there's not enough evidence of growth and in fact evidence of a plateau in case numbers. Obviously I don't have access to any special information either way about whether this is a fair assessment.

Worries about "stigmatization" of gay men also seems to be a factor, and I agree that it would be really weird if offending the sensibilities of gay people in Western countries was a main concern (or something like that), but reading between the lines a bit I think it's probably more about the countries in Western Africa where monkeypox has already been endemic for decades and homosexuality is punishable by law.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criminalization_of_homosexuali...


Uh... but the CDC won't even acknowledge how many tests have been conducted. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1540743939275096069

Won't have high case counts if you don't have testing! Yeah we really are acting like we haven't been watching this exact same movie for the last 2 years. Incredible.


That's because they don't know. Hospitals aren't reporting it. The conspiracy theories aren't useful.

This is just not an airborne disease, so forcing a new national test tracking program is not warranted.


Look back a little further, to 1981, which was when AIDS was first identified by modern medicine, and then how nobody gave a rat's ass about it until people who weren't gay men or junkies started catching HIV.


Remember when they decided it would be a good time to rename it because the name is "discriminatory and stigmatizing?" I feel like there are more urgent things right now...


Reminds me of swine flu; it's not kosher / halal.


There is a huge difference between COVID and monkeypox in terms of public health danger.

COVID is infectious for several days before any symptoms. This makes classical spread control mechanisms highly inefficient. You can reduce the human-to-human interaction through lockdowns and restrictions, but cannot stop it completely. So a small percentage of pilots, police officers, nurses and other essential jobs will always carry and spread COVID, just because that's how probabilities work. The only thing you can do with restrictions is reduce this number to hopefully lower R0 below 1, but that's not viable.

Monkeypox spreads through visible and identifiable scabs. You can easily tell whether someone is infections from a simple visual inspection, so if we ever start running low on hospital beds due to it, the spread-reducing measures will be much more effective.

Also, from the original article:

>vast majority of cases is observed among [...] not previously immunized against smallpox (knowing that vaccination against smallpox is effective in protecting against monkeypox as well).

So:

1. We already have a working vaccine

2. The potential R0 will be much lower due to lack of asymptomatic spreaders

The media will do its best to paint it as the next apocalypse and divide people further based on their perception of the risk, but I do not think it would be wise to follow that lead.


I read on Twitter an anecdote about someone who couldn’t get a monkeypox test because she is not a gay man.

In my experience medicine has a lot of blind spots where they won’t test for things that are considered rare, but it’s possible that it is only considered rare because they’re not testing. I hope monkeypox isn’t one of them.

EDIT: The tweet I saw; https://twitter.com/ahandvanish/status/1541214341558636547


>someone who couldn’t get a monkeypox test because she is not a gay man.

This is bad, of course. But I feel like you buried the lede. Did she have monkeypox?

>it’s possible that it is only considered rare because they’re not testing.

Unlike COVID-19, monkeypox has frank symptoms (welts) that clearly distinguish it from other diseases. It cannot be mistaken for much else. Therefore, only a certain fraction of cases (the least severe) are even candidates to be missed, since I find it hard to believe that even the "medically reluctant" would not visit a doctor when they find themselves developing a monkeypox rash.

EDIT: to another poster's comparison with AIDS, it's my understanding that the incubation period for monkeypox is not months long as happens with HIV, either.


There was a story on NPR a couple days ago where they were talking to a man that had Monkey Pox. He went to the doctor and told him he was pretty certain he had it. The doctor wouldn't even order the test. There was a fair amount more to the story but, if I recall correctly, he had to go to like 4 different doctors to even get one to order the test; and it came back positive.

They then went on to discuss it with (someone related to the medical / testing field in some way) who explained that it's very hard to order a test for; something about there being a limited number of labs that can test for it or some such. And doctors needed to justify the test and would likely be on the phone for an hour just to get it ordered. As such, a lot of doctors just... won't, because it's such a commitment of time/effort to do so.

Edit: I think this is the story (it was the radio when I encountered it) https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/06/25/1107416...

> Providers have to go out of their way to order a test. They have to receive permission and instructions from local or state labs, Nuzzo says. The process is cumbersome and often time-consuming. Sometimes a doctor has to sit on the phone for hours.


> explained that it's very hard to order a test for; something about there being a limited number of labs that can test for it or some such. And doctors needed to justify the test and would likely be on the phone for an hour just to get it ordered

This was also a significant concern early in the COVID outbreak, and tests are ubiquitous now. (And a head-in-the-sand attitude coming from top policy-makers didn't exactly help, either.) So hopefully it can be addressed down the line, just as COVID was.


> They then went on to discuss it with (someone related to the medical / testing field in some way) who explained that it's very hard to order a test for; something about there being a limited number of labs that can test for it or some such. And doctors needed to justify the test and would likely be on the phone for an hour just to get it ordered. As such, a lot of doctors just... won't, because it's such a commitment of time/effort to do so.

The doctors need to explain this to the patients then, but that's probably also too much effort for them.


On the contrary, it could be easily mistaken for herpes, molluscum, warts, syphilis, acne, insect bites... This outbreak doesn't usually have the severe rash that's characteristic of classic monkeypox.


Here is the tweet I saw; https://twitter.com/ahandvanish/status/1541214341558636547

It's stated that their whole family has symptoms. I agree, anyone who has symptoms should be able to get a test if available. In the case where not enough tests are available I would prefer a probabilistic approach (e.g. multi-armed bandit).


Also unlike HIV/AIDS we already have a pretty effective vaccine in the form of the Smallpox vaccine:

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/vis/vis-statements/smallpox...

People in high risk groups should look to get vaccinated.


I have a condition where at least 25% of people show negative on the primary blood test. This is well known at top clinics.

Lots of other tests exits that show you have it.

I’ve had a dozen doctors all declare i definitely don’t have the condition based on negative. Despite having every single symptom and some other blood tests that strongly suggested it.

I had to fight like crazy to get the other tests run. All positive. They still didn’t want to diagnose me. So then I had to push hard to start treatment. A Month later I was doing drastically better.

Some of stuff you can’t fake. Doctor finally agreed that I probably had it.

Every doctor since then loved to try prove I don’t have it by running the initial test. Because 25% chance means 0% chance.


I think that experiencing medicine as an individual is often so bad because we’re statistics in a harm-reduction macro game. I try to remind myself of that at every negative healthcare interaction, and try to advocate for myself more as I age.


You have to advocate. And you have to do your own research. I would be dead if I hadn’t.

You will also be called a hypochondriac at every single stage if you do any of that. By doctors, by family. Everyone. You will be told endlessly that it’s just anxiety.

Family that had been frankly abusive were shocked when I started getting positive results back and responding to treatment.

Some of the issues were genetic.

So several Members of the family that have been dismissing me went and got tested. They were testing positive for the same conditions and that explained a lot of the weirdness in their life.

Also sad to hear how a lot of my relatives died fairly young in horrible agony from same symptoms But everyone just dismissed it. No one thought that maybe it’s all related.


I could not possibly agree more. You must advocate for yourself and your loved ones. My youngest had the fairly rare kawasaki's disease at 4 months old, she went from sleeping through the night at 10 weeks old to not being able to sleep for more than 45 minutes at a time, fully body rash, red eyes, cranky/irritable, and a 104 degree fever.

A sick visit to our pediatrician's office resulted in us seeing the other practitioner, not ours, who couldn't figure it out. Recommended antipyretics only at that point, took blood. Still in bad shape, a night or two later we went to a children's ER where all the staff spoke to us like we were overly concerned idiot parents. Finally when we returned to our pediatrician and saw our actual doctor, she near instantly recognized it as Kawasaki's and referred us over to NYU for treatment.

Once there, we were admitted to the ER, where my daughter and I stayed the entire night w/o any real help (triage). The following morning after I left and my wife took over, they came to put a line in her and start treatment (intravenous immunoglobulins [IVIg]) but "couldn't put a line in" because she had been "stuck too many times". So they recommended SEDATING HER AND PUTTING A LINE IN THROUGH HER HEART (sorry for the emphasis, I'm still mad). My wife, on little sleep called me to tell me all this and I refused the procedure. I said "no, what you're going to do is get the best phlebotomist at the hospital to put a normal line in her". They argued but eventually got someone and twenty minutes later I got a text saying they put a line in her from my wife. I mean... c'mon.

The following day when I returned there were 3 doctors who were in some way I believe following my daughter's case. One of them insisted on a secondary treatment, the other two said we could go home. I asked the one doctor a series of questions which he effectively dismissed and told me to just do what he was asking. The other two on the other hand answered my questions (e.g): * if the disease comes back, will it present with the same symptoms * if the disease comes back, when will it come back, what is the median time * are their studies on recurrence of the disease etc. etc. long list I can't remember.

I contacted UC San Diego, where they study Kawasaki's. Read papers, got papers in Japanese which I forwarded over to this pair of doctors who entertained my questions. They translated the papers, read them, told me the findings within.

I took her home that day. I don't deal with medical "professionals" who dismiss you. Glad you didn't either.


How is she doing now? Sorry to hear that have had similar issues myself


Sorry to hear that.

In her case, 4+ years later, she’s great. No recurrence. Heart was cleared of any abnormalities which could have been a side effect. Avoided all that by catching it early enough


Intense story.


> we’re statistics in a harm-reduction macro game

Built by overworked people that stopped studding or practicing statistics decades ago.


I have hypermobile Ehlers Danlos Syndrome (hEDS), which is one of the most under-diagnosed conditions. The vast majority who have it will live their entire painful lives being gaslight by doctors. It's been known about for thousands of years and is incredibly easy to diagnose, yet somehow doctors still get it wrong. I have extremely low respect for doctors and the medical establishment, if they can't get hEDS right then what can get right.


I had undiagnosed hypothyroidism for 2 years of my childhood because doctors looked at my textbook symptoms and just claimed I was lazy.

Ultimately I was diagnosed by my mother's coworker/friend. They were parking ramp toll booth attendants at an airport at the time. She recognized the symptoms because her dog had it. My mother had to go full Karen on a doctor until they agreed to test for it.

Your average doctor is given entirely too much faith.


If you want to see truly inexplicable misunderstandings of conditional probabilities by the medical industry, try having a kid in the US.


So basically a repeat of the 80s with HIV/AIDS. As a society, we really don't learn from our mistakes, sigh.


What does this mean?

HIV/AIDS research had a hard time during the 80's since it was considered EXTREMELY homophobic to ask if a person had a homosexual experience when diagnosed with HIV/AIDS/Kaposi's Sarcoma, which was an issue when tests were extremely limited/unsure of efficacy and the CDC was trying to figure out infection vectors.

This was an issue since, while not unique to the gay community, it massively increased the likelyhood of transmission, but it was politically untenable to claim that AIDS could be spread sexually and that anal sex massively increased the changes of transmitting it since it was considered homophobic.


I regret to report that in the 1980's USA, homophobic speech and actions were 100% politically tenable.

Reagan didn't mention AIDS publicly until 1987, and the reason for that was definitely not that he wanted to avoid being seen as homophobic.


I regret to inform you that it doesn't address the point.

The saunas and baths where gay people convened were mostly in the big cities, the places where the AIDS epidemic were most concentrated due to basic population density.

The very places where the message that "you should probably use condoms and have fewer partners due to this new disease that we don't understand yet but are pretty sure is sexually transmitted" was a political death sentence in the cities where the message actually mattered.

This doesn't excuse Reagans response or the general homophobic attitude, but lets try to be more historically accurate.

There are reasons why Fauci, who used to be hated by the gay community for above reasons, is now considered one of the good guys fighting for the gay community.


It wasn’t because it was considered homophobic to ask. It was because society was so homophobic that it put patients in a tough position to answer, even the in context of a trusted patient-doctor relationship.


> HIV/AIDS research had a hard time during the 80's since it was considered EXTREMELY homophobic to ask if a person had a homosexual experience

You're confusing the cart and the horse. Homophobia was mainstream, to the point where it was extremely dangerous to honestly answer that you had a homosexual experience.


HIV/AIDS was considered a "gay men only" disease in the early to mid 1980s. I believe they are referencing how among straight men (and women) testing was commonly curtailed because they weren't perceived to be at risk. It wasn't until 1986 that testing of all military recruits became standard.


WHO doesn't do something? Criminal negligence and/or cover-up.

WHO does something? Power-hungry bureaucrats fueled by hysteria and ideology.

The only thing we know for sure is that they're definitely not well-informed yet still fallible professionals just trying to do their job.


It's because the WHO appears to be corrupt and incompetent. Heads needed to roll after COVID and they didn't. Therefore, the organization was seen as endorsing the terrible handling of a global pandemic.

Also, Tedros needs to go.


The best resource to track the world: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox


The log scale view of that graph is comforting.


Unfortunately, the COVID graph started out looking like that too: a rapid exponential growth followed by a slightly slower exponential growth.

It probably represents the limits of diagnostic capability rather than increased effectiveness of test-and-trace efforts.


I have no idea which way or the other and my suspicions could be entirely baseless, but I noticed that the US has the same number of cases reported as Canada[1]. Given the population differences between the two countries, this suggests to me that it's possible cases are being missed.

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/world-m...


Thank goodness. It's not even trasmitted through the air.


I can't tell if you're being sarcastic. Until a few weeks ago, both monkeypox and smallpox were listed as airborne diseases. It's been changed in public health doc's since monkeypox started to spread, but not because it has changed. They're just trying to downplay it.


"Spread can occur by small droplets and possibly the airborne route."[1]

[1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkeypox


Same wikipedia:

"Limited person-to-person spread of infection has been reported in disease-endemic areas in Africa"


From the source of your quote:

"Human-to-human transmission occurs through close proximity or direct physical contact (e.g., face-to-face, skin-to-skin, mouth-to-mouth, mouth-to-skin contact including during sex) with skin or mucous membranes that may have recognized or unrecognized infectious lesions such as mucocutaneous ulcers, respiratory droplets (and possibly short-range aerosols), or contact with contaminated materials (e.g., linens, bedding, electronics, clothing)."[1]

"Intubation and extubation, and any procedures likely to spread oral secretions should be performed in an airborne infection isolation room."[2]

[1]: https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2...

[2]: https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/infection-...

Nowhere does it says that it is airborne.


> respiratory droplets (and possibly short-range aerosols)

Maybe I'm missing something here, but is the above not the definition of airborne?


Yes, it is, but IIRC the term "airborne" can also refer to disease particles that can survive in the air unencapsulated (such as certain fungi), and can therefore travel quite some distance, and can remain hanging in the air for hours.

Aerosols are heavier than air, and therefore have a very limited range and duration in which the virus can remain "airborne" in common parlance.

(edit: expanded the definition to include more than just viruses as I couldn't find an example of a virus that can survive unencapsulated)


Cool, thank you for the clarfication!


Its pretty disappointing that your comment was dead and I had to vouch for it.


NeutronStar was banned in 2018 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17553252


So you're saying all their comments are automatically dead until someone vouches for them? Or just he was downvoted on reputation?


> automatically dead

a technique known as 'shadowbanning'


"Shadowbanning" is if you do that without telling the user that they are banned, with the goal of them not realizing they are banned for a while so they waste time instead of trying to circumvent the ban.


The scabs when dry crumble the particles shed can become airborne and are infectious.


They don't want a new gay disease stigma, so will just stay mum on this.


They will do eventually. Now it is touristic season.


For those who thought containment of covid was ever a possibility, watch how monkeypox plays out. Despite it being far less contagious, already having a vaccine, and hindsight of a recent pandemic, we already have community spread in the US. Hopefully someone in the administration placed an order for the Jynneos vaccine.


[flagged]


Given that WHO declined to declare it an global emergency, who are you referring to?


[flagged]


But they aren't mentioned in the article. What you're saying seems unrelated and actually the opposite of the article.


in the Netherlands, i think we have now 270 cases or so. All are men who have sex with other men. Plus one child.... o-tone radio

one might wonder how the child got infected ....


Breastfeeding seems very likely, as does sleeping in the same bed as someone who was infected.




Join us for AI Startup School this June 16-17 in San Francisco!

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: