> Strategists say the rally isn’t credible as many currency-trading shops have stopped dealing in the ruble on the grounds that its value seen on monitors is not the price it can be traded at in the real world.
This means "fraudulent" as in, "Russia is manipulating its own currency's value."
There is a difference between fraudulent pricing and changing pricing, I agree. This is fraudulent pricing, however.
>This means "fraudulent" as in, "Russia is manipulating its own currency's value."
No, snake_doc is right. The black market rate is only 15-20% higher (as per the Bloomberg article from a week later mentioned elsewhere), which is a relatively small spread for this sort of situation.
Right now, it is more or less impossible for any Russian to a) use the dollar to buy anything from outside Russia, and b) travel outside Russia to buy anything in the first place. That greatly reduces the demand for exchanging rubles for dollars.
This is true, whether via official or unofficial means. Consider Argentina, a country that for years has had its own serious economic issues. A huge skew between the official and black-market exchange rate for hard currency, such as in Argentina (the "dolar azul"), exists because a) there are capital controls but b) it's still possible to use those dollars/Euro/Swiss franc/whatever. Argentineans are free to use the US dollar to buy things, both inside and outside Argentina. This is not true for Russians.
So in other words, Russia is artificially inflating the value of its currency in a way that doesn't represent (misrepresents) its value to the rest of the world and indeed to other Russians?
It is categorically incorrect to keep referring to the policies as fraudulent.
Russian’s enacted capital controls protects the value of the ruble internally. Had they not enacted capital controls and the central bank not intervened, the Russian people’s existing ruble would depreciate much faster. These are protective measures against the effects of sanctions, with real positive benefits domestically that regular Russians enjoy.
It’s not fraudulent because domestic Russians mostly benefits from the propped up currency. Without it, domestic economics would plummet and regular Russians would face harsh economic outcomes. The central bank works hard to prevent that outcome.
Currency manipulation is not fraudulent. It is a well accepted and studied sovereign tool in monetary policy. Geopolitical dynamics may deem it unsavory, but it is a tool that is grounded in supply and demand dynamics. A failed manipulation strategy leads to a country’s default.
This means "fraudulent" as in, "Russia is manipulating its own currency's value."
There is a difference between fraudulent pricing and changing pricing, I agree. This is fraudulent pricing, however.