The situation is still in progress, but if Russia can get out of this mess with just loss of Donbass, Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet, they would have to gratulate themselves for unexpected salvation. That would be akin to the Russo-Japanese war, where their diplomats were able pull off a much more reasonable peace than one would expect from the actual war result.
The worst case scenario is a civil war like the one that followed their military collapse in WWI. Only with nukes in the mix. Yuck.
The attrition of Russian military equipment is very high and they are in no position to replenish it fast enough.
At the same time, the Ukrainians are receiving enormous amounts of high tech equipment from a coalition of states that, taken together, is about 30 times as rich as Russia and much more technologically capable.
The Russians already had to abandon their Kiev push and now are retreating from the Kharkiv region, unable to take a city located mere 25 miles from their own border and next to the major Russian military hub of Belgorod.
Three or four months of further attrition warfare like that and they will have nothing left to deploy into battle.
And you aren’t concerned about Ukrainian troop losses or equipment losses?
Nor the unrest in the US about spending $50B+ in foreign aid while (literally) letting US babies starve?
Nor the inflation and supply shortages caused by lack of Ukrainian and Russia supplies to the West/abroad?
Nor our allies turning against us — eg, Saudi Arabia and Mexico challenging US foreign policy or the massive decrease in support between votes in the UN?
And you believe that Ukraine and it’s backers can sustain another 3-4 months of this combat? — and then muster the forces to expel Russia from Donbas and Crimea?
The Ukrainians will definitely take some losses, but nations defending themselves from an attack have higher motivation to bear them. Plus, the worst danger for Ukraine - indiscriminate shelling of cities such as Kyiv and Kharkhiv, where a lot of civilians live - has receded with the failure of both Russian offensives. Russia does not have enough missiles to turn entire metropolitan areas into rubble, and conventional artillery can only shoot so far.
Americans usually do not riot over money spent on the armed forces, otherwise the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns would have led to a country collapse back home - both were an order of magnitude more expensive. I would even say that Americans are, of all the Western nations, the most complacent about high military spending.
Inflation and supply shortages are a real thing, yes. Definitely worrisome. But if Russia can be knocked down from their imperial madness for some decades, I'll buy it. Things look a lot different from behind the former Iron Curtain, where I am from; being under Russian yoke for decades will make you say "Never Again". Of all the tyrannies of Central Europe, only the Nazis were worse than the rule of the Kremlin.
I do not particularly care about Saudi Arabia (IMHO it is not our ally, but a major source of terrorism and extremism, exporting Wahhabist and Salafist ideology by the truckload) nor Mexico. (What reason would Mexico even have to join any pro-Russian coalition?) UN is generally a corrupt sham where the most useless diplomats and politicians of the world are disposed of.
Yes, I think that both Ukraine and its backers are by now invested enough that they will persist until they break the capability of Russia to engage in war. European land wars are like that and always have been. Americans may view things differently, because their wars are usually fought abroad. For Europe, war is an unpleasant, but historically familiar phenomenon, and countries generally only surrender if they really cannot fight anymore.
Which is the state I expect Russia to reach sooner. Their logistics are abysmal, their industry isn't in a state to support such attrition, and there isn't a single industrially developed country on Earth willing to throw material support behind them. They can get Eritrea to vote with them in the UN, but Eritrea won't supply them with tanks and planes.
And the only major power that was their hope, China, does not look willing to shackle itself to the corpse of a dying empire.
His influence on Western politics? A big chunk of the Russian economy? Finnland joining NATO? His ability to divide NATO countries? That list is quite long.
I’m not sure he had any of those to lose (nor that, eg, Finland joining NATO is assured) — except the economy one, where the ruble is faring better than the dollar.
The ruble currently trades stronger against the US dollar than September 2021.
