Average recession lasts about 500 days. This one might be a multi-year bear. I wouldn't start buying until there are strong signs of recovery. There will be bear market rallies that can suck you in to a false sense of confidence.
Fed is going to let their debt roll off continuing to contract the money supply. Inflation can't really be tempered by fed policy with shutdowns in China. Reducing demand helps but not much when supply is being reduced at the same time.
I'm in cannabis CPG and industrial real estate. Right now cannabis retailers aren't paying their bills to distributors/manufacturers. It's ugly. Lots of blood. I see cannabis as the canary in the coal mine because there's an easily substituted product (black market cannabis) and it's the first thing to go when people are broke. I'm watching my industry collapse in real time. On the industrial real estate side I'm preparing for my tenants to default in the next 2 years. I'm okay with that because I'm in prime Los Angeles market and very liquid. If they default I'm not sweating it.
Personally I think there will be a lot of stock delistings and a credit and/or liquidity crisis. Anyone burning cash right now is flirting with death IMHO.
This is just my 0.02. My source is having lived through two of these already: 2000 and 2008.
- "Number one rule of Wall Street. Nobody - and I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or if you're Jimmy Buffet - nobody knows if a stock is going to go up, down, sideways or in circles. You know what a fugazi is?"
- "Fugayzi, it's a fake."
- "Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real."
