> pretty clear the primary driver was demand driven.
Perhaps after the sharp downward in 2020. But it isn't clear what is the primary driver after the 1st qtr of 2020.
That chart doesn't necessarily imply consumer consumption is driving the increase. It could be inflation that's driving the uptick in the chart.
If last year it cost $1 to buy a dozen eggs. And now it costs $2 to buy a dozen eggs, it would cause a spike in the chart. Same amount of purchases, but different prices.
It's hard to tell from that chart whether the rise to $600 billion in consumption is due to more consumption or higher prices. Is it 2 * $1/dozen = $2 or 1 * $2/dozen = $2. We end up at $2, but one is via greater consumption and the other via inflation.
The chart is very obvious. We have a 10y trend of gradual increases YoY in consumption. Then the pandemic hits and we have a 30%+ increase in consumption in the span of a year.
That doesn't happen by mistake, and if you look at the personal income charts it becomes even more obvious.
Also the various spikes in consumption clearly aligns with when the respective spending packages were passed.
The fact that it took a whole year for people to understand the root cause is quite amazing, given that we have this very obvious data. But there was a vested interest in it being a supply side issue, so I'm not surprised
It is only obvious to people who have already drawn their conclusions and are looking for justifications to back up their conclusions.
> That doesn't happen by mistake, and if you look at the personal income charts it becomes even more obvious.
Once again, you already had your conclusion and went looking for "data". Personal income spiked briefly and fell back down back to its linear trajectory.
> The fact that it took a whole year for people to understand the root cause is quite amazing, given that we have this very obvious data. But there was a vested interest in it being a supply side issue, so I'm not surprised
Looks like there is vested interested everywhere.
In my experience, people who see the "obvious" in a very complicated issue are agenda driven people with vested interests. Also, my comment was in relation to consumption and inflation. My point was that you can't necessarily see inflation in consumption because you can't tell if the increase in consumption was due to inflation or more purchases. Something you completely ignored.
Perhaps after the sharp downward in 2020. But it isn't clear what is the primary driver after the 1st qtr of 2020.
That chart doesn't necessarily imply consumer consumption is driving the increase. It could be inflation that's driving the uptick in the chart.
If last year it cost $1 to buy a dozen eggs. And now it costs $2 to buy a dozen eggs, it would cause a spike in the chart. Same amount of purchases, but different prices.
It's hard to tell from that chart whether the rise to $600 billion in consumption is due to more consumption or higher prices. Is it 2 * $1/dozen = $2 or 1 * $2/dozen = $2. We end up at $2, but one is via greater consumption and the other via inflation.