Out of curiosity: What is/was your motivation behind this and how does it correlate to elections?
My baseline assumption looking at this is that in all of these numbers, there are massive systematic, global - and hence exogenous to France or any single state - forces at play (like globalization, the Financial crisis and the following decade of inflationary money printing) which shape most of these indicators.
Showing election dates of French presidents looks like a classic and rather obvious case of correlation does not imply causation.
Might well be that I don't have the full picture though and I was not following French campaigns. Is there a public debate/ general public opinion in France that presidents had significant influence on these indicators shown?
> Out of curiosity: What is/was your motivation behind this and how does it correlate to elections?
What motivated me is the simple fact that during this presidential campaign we would have one candidate saying that his presidential balance has been "very good", and on the other side all the opponents have been constantly stating that it has been a "disaster". During these last months, I have been unable to find a "neutral" and global way of see the impact Macron has had during the last 5 years. I therefore wanted to build this website in order to have a dashboard showing national statistics on key topics.
> Showing election dates of French presidents looks like a classic and rather obvious case of correlation does not imply causation.
I wanted to show the presidential election dates precisely to showcase this: It really almost doesn't matter which president France has. I believe that the macroeconomic variations follow World/European variations. And unfortunately, I feel that too many people believe that the presidents are "destroying" or "saving" the country.
> Might well be that I don't have the full picture though and I was not following French campaigns. Is there a public debate/ general public opinion in France that presidents had significant influence on these indicators shown?
I guess that there has probably been debates and studies about this, but from my experience I can say that presidents cannot influence too much the trends that the country is following.
As a French abroad, so maybe more detached, I agree with you ! Maybe the president could have an impact if he did anything a bit revolutionary, but since they never do and simply soft manage the country to prevent any huge swing, it seems like they dont matter.
I guess we could say this is an accomplishment to manage to stick to european averages, one president could pull and Erdogan, move back to the Franc and explode the inflation or someth :D
I don't believe this to be a good thing. If voting differently doesn't make a difference, then why vote? Is it actually a democracy if elections don't have any impact?
Just as an example: in Germany there is now a SPD led government, with the Greens and the FDP, after a long time of CDU led government. Many people voted to see some real changes, e.g. when it comes to environmental policies or social topics like wealth gaps, low minimum wage, ...
If after 4 years of an SPD led government, the people don't see and feel any real change, the only thing they can do is move to more extremist parties.
There is also some weird mental gymnastics going on when it comes to the power of the state. During the election campaigns, all candidates promise big changes. Once elected, they will tell you that they don't have the power to actually do it, and claim some outside forces are stopping them. People also at the same time expect politicians to be able to mage big changes, but don't actually believe that it is possible.
The only big changes I can remember that were actually made were mostly negative.
> If voting differently doesn't make a difference, then why vote? Is it actually a democracy if elections don't have any impact?
It's not that elections don't have an impact, they do, but you shouldn't expect that impact to manifest itself as large swings in aggregate statistics, for two reasons:
1. Those statistics measure the aggregate behavior of many individuals, most of which are not elected officials but ordinary people. Unless the government adopts a command economy and micromanages everything, they have only limited influence on what ordinary people are doing.
2. The people voting in each election are mostly the same and they're not going to suddenly vote all that differently.
If you want to know what kind of impact an election outcome had, look at things the government influences directly, where there are widely divergent opinions on what to do, and where the election coincides with a change in which opinion has majority support.
This is actually the same in the US where you have a false choice between red/blue teams both always led by old white dudes lobbied into oblivion (legally) by capital.
Or in spain, where you have the red/blue dichotomy, and a -constitutional democracy-, and a king. All living under the umbrella of the mere appointment of the past dictator from 70y ago... and all doing the same pillaging and corruption no matter their -supposed- ideologies you're supposed to vote for.
I think we've been sold democracy as a one size fits all solution, and it might have worked for the greek polis (where btw, democracy co-lived with slavery too) but might be a flawed thing in the 21st century of globalisation and mass media and corps much bigger and powerful than nation states...
Because it's a fallacy to think "change" is the purpose. If we cant fix the french mindset bar a terrible crisis, then the best to do is to soft manage the country like all presidents did since the americans showered us with money and made us believe we didnt have to work for it.
We could change, but how many decades of instability to move towards capitalism away from the nanny state ? Knowing us we d be communist before being individualist. I think Macron got it and is trying very slowly, that s good enough and I vote satisfied. Why always revolt and break everything ?
I didn't find a great up to date source, but the latest number I saw - French median wealth is almost 3 times Germany. That's with the Germans earning more on average, working more, working longer and getting lower pensions.
Look at the decline of labour share.
We are outcompeting us to death. If French people work more, what are the Germans to do? Work even more? We will end up in a spiral.
How do you motivate people to work harder for less money? Just to make the economy happy? What's in it for the people?
Thank you very much for sharing this context, it's really helpful!
I just had a conversation with a French friend whose opinion on the election and the design of the institutions closely matches what you're describing.
I'm a little ashamed to say that albeit having learned French quite a long time in school and considering myself to be interested in the affairs of your country as a German neighbour I had hardly a notion of how polar your presedential election process and the public discours around it and related policies by candidates seems to be set up.
It's hard to say there's a direct causation. I left France myself because I felt the problems shown in these indicators were so deeply rooted in the French psyche that there was simply nothing to do. For instance, dropping the unemployment rate to a level akin to Germany would require us to see life like Germans do: practically, minding social cost of social welfare, admitting mistakes and correcting course rather than doubling down etc.
I voted Macron because he was the only one suggesting maybe the French people are the root cause rather than the political color of the president, but I understand this guy did it that way: everyone will make the president own these indicators and judge him accordingly, and of course be permanently disappointed and vote more and more radical. If you look at the landscape this election it's 30% "fuck it all it's the foreigners" LePen, 30% "fuck it all it's the 1%" Melenchon and 30% "fucking hell dudes, we dont know what it could be but the 2 others are scary so let's just stick to the evil we know" Macron.
I've never heard someone clearly stating without being shunned immediately "guys, the problem, I think I know, it's simply... all of us" :D And yes even external factors will be blamed on the president, especially if he proposes to adapt to it: why would we proud light of the world adapt to american or chinese competition, we can simply do nothing at all while posturing on the streets we re fighting for our "social acquisitions" as we call our rigid policies.
I moved to Hong Kong, which has its own issues. Out of love for a human being, for sure, but let s say I didnt convince that sweet other to move to France hehe. She would have if I asked, but as an unemployed english speaking Pakhistani in France, she would have had more trouble than me in a fully employed society like HK.
It's disfunctional if you live in it and pay taxes. For me we waste our taxes if we cant make a balanced budget, it s not even a crazy philosophy: we live beyond our means and borrow from others to calm down the electorate, we re cheating. In Hong Kong my taxes go to a surplus, you wont hear me criticise the gov much, because at least they got their basics right. I pay my 12k USD yearly with a proud smile that I contribute to building something that s coherent if not perfectly democratic. While I paid my 2k euros in France grumbling it s all going to waste anyway. You can also guess the salary increase you have working in a place where unemployment is a meaningless concept, because no welfare.
I dislike the US as much as the next guy and do not see it as a proper model. Let s not even talk of tax surplus there. Germany sounds like they try to do politics the right way but it s not like I know it all that much beyond their results.
I pay roughly the same proportion of my income here than in France: a big month of salary. ( just a wildly different salary … )
In France I do it happily, we get so much in return. From social redistribution to infrastructure.
Here, oh god, I understand why the average murican hates taxes and government : they get close to nothing in return.
In regards to States balancing their budget. It’s tempting to think that what is good for a individual is good for the state.
Let’s just say I subscribe to Keynesian economics, so I’m fine with a state spending.
I do not think hk is coherent. The tax you paid is not all. Your rent is your tax as well. Anyway people are running from the police state they are building. May be you are ok. Good luck. No luck to hk people though.
What do you think is the problem? I know next to nothing about France and by simply looking at the graphs, it seems to be getting better, no? Unemployment is decreasing, purchasing power is increasing, rent increase is not that crazy compared to how it is in the world. Is it about how things have always been or is it about deltas in recent times? Seems to me the former is the case here.
I would say it's getting better, maybe not to the point I d come back, probably because like I smelled, Macron helped unwind some of our social rigidity, but from the look of it (my families and friends back on the motherland), he made so many people seethe with rage with his "we must adapt or die" attitude that he ravaged the moderate parties to the profit of the populists on both side who want to reassure that we can unwind everything because none of our problems are of our own making...
But yes, def positive, def happy from abroad, and def coming back when Macron-like consensus is at 60% rather than 30, anything less means it's going to come back.
As for the root cause I think it's because we misunderstand what we are: a small country dependent on Germany's benevolence to continue with our post war marshall plan attitude. We must produce, we must invent, we must adapt, we must sacrifice. But instead we whine, we fight on the street and we vote for populist comfort that we're still the great napoleonic empire, light of the Universe, that s the issue. And yes, I know im whining here too :D Also note at least 70% of french people disagree with me, so, grain of salt...
Hi there, first of all thank you for sharing your perspective!
In your post and a different real life convo with a French friend of mine I am surprised to learn that he is similarly frustrated with the political process as you seem to be. He mentioned deGaulle set up the presidential election process the way it is today post WWII to weaken the impact of radical politicians like le Pen for obvious reasons. It seems the approach is more and more backfiring, though. Do you feel like it's all French "esprit" of trying to buckle against the obvious or is there any discussion around the design of the elections as well?
Other than that, I have to say, I totally chuckled on your remark that you think of France as a small country dependent on Germany's benevolence.
As a German neighbour and friend, let me tell you that I think of France by no means as a small country. Your country's cultural achievements in cuisine, in literature, poetry, music are absolutely legendary, world class.
France ignited the process towards democracy both at home and abroad. You upheld humanitarian values long before the rest of Europe and especially Germany did.
You are the only continental European country which is a nuclear power.
Yes Germany has a larger - and incredibly export dependent - economy. If all runs smooth globally the party is on, if it doesn't like now the entire engine becomes quite fragile. And we're entering an era where much of the focus will turn more inwards I believe towards domestic or inter-European supply chains and production.
I guess I don't want to paint a rainbow against what you are saying, but just share as a German that our country just like any other has its own set of issues stemming from what seems desirable at first glance. And I am truly happy and sleep better at night knowing that France with it's sound humanitarian values, military power and richt culture is an ally and friend in Europe.
I guess we all want what we don't have. I'd trade the cuisine for German engineering because it feels somehow, in the grand scheme, what will matter eventually is to resist and compete with a Chinese democracy, centuries down the line.
For countries like France relying on past capital and stagnating, admired by productive germans who dream of our dilletante for sure, waking up next to a space faring, technologically advanced and politically enticing China, size of a small planet may I remind you, will be hard. Maybe we ll sell them poetry, but my guess is we ll deplete for good and rot away. We ll never manage to keep the nanny state, since to this day, we borrow from..
. China to finance it.
Interesting, thanks for the explanation. Was this "we must adapt or die" a distasteful rhetoric or political blunder that angered some people for no reason or was a justification for some of his plans? I generally think people are mostly aware of the deltas in their living conditions, so it seemed interesting to me that people are still looking for a radical change even things are getting objectively better. Hope you guys don't fuck around and find out :)
It needed Schroeder's Agenda 2010 and Hartz 4 to reduce unemploymebt in Germany. When that started, Germany was considered Europe's sick man. Whether or not it was worth it is a good question, we don't know what things would be without all of that. What is certain, so, is that Hartz 4 took a lot away from our social network. And we pay the price still today.
Yes! Currently working on selecting the best source of information about this topic and thinking about how to display it appropriately (e.g. comparing French inflation with EU average or world average?).
I am also working on the climate impact of the french population :)
My baseline assumption looking at this is that in all of these numbers, there are massive systematic, global - and hence exogenous to France or any single state - forces at play (like globalization, the Financial crisis and the following decade of inflationary money printing) which shape most of these indicators.
Showing election dates of French presidents looks like a classic and rather obvious case of correlation does not imply causation.
Might well be that I don't have the full picture though and I was not following French campaigns. Is there a public debate/ general public opinion in France that presidents had significant influence on these indicators shown?