> even when government officials learn about plots to overthrow an autocrat, they may not share that knowledge. This is known as the “vacuum effect”
This paragraph seems strange to me. Wouldn’t the one who shines light on a plan to kill the autocrat be highly rewarded? Googling the “vacuum effect” doesn’t yield results that explain this effect further.
Other than that, interesting read, the distortion of information the autocrat receives seems logical.
> one who shines light on a plan to kill the autocrat be highly rewarded?
Or tortured to death to squeeze out every last tidbit they know about the plot. Loyalty is not always rewarded.
It is a common tactic of autocrats to sow a community of pathological paranoia and distrust; I've read accounts of figures ranging from Toussaint to Franco to Stalin all playing a similar game -- you tell the dictator about some corruption or plot, and they tell the person you were informing on. I think it's more fun for them that way. In any case in that sort of environment it's not hard to imagine keeping quiet about a plot to off the boss, even if you kinda like the boss.
>Wouldn’t the one who shines light on a plan to kill the autocrat be highly rewarded?
Maybe, but I’m sure in Russia at least, people remember the Stalin years. Getting rewarded might mean getting into a position where Stalin might someday perceive you as a threat.
Erm, in the span of a few weeks Putin managed to galvanize most Russians against the west, chase most western influences out of Russia, develop a new financial alignment with China and in most other ways turn the clock back 40 years. He's also managed to seize control of a land bridge between Donbass and Crimea, which Russian troops will likely never leave, and ensure Ukraine never becomes a member of NATO.
I know it's an unpopular opinion, but maybe Putin is actually getting everything he bargained for?
The central argument is that a dictator surrounds himself with yes men. That leads to two problems: nobody tells him the truth, so he starts misunderstanding the reality around him, on one hand, and on the other had he's surrounded by incompetents. This all sounds quite sensible.
But then, how did Hitler and Stalin manage to produce so formidable empires?
Post WW1 propaganda and half assed conclusion of the war allowed Hitler to brainwash a lot of smart and capable people. Stalin had numbers and full support of biggest powers. He first aligned himself with Germany after WW1, Nazi Germany owes its armored and air prowess to Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany%E2%80%93Soviet_Union_r..., and then the moment Hitler betrayed him in 1941 flipped to the arms of US and Allies receiving 1/3 of Europe as a reward in Yalta.
The way NATO/EU acts now, not as united front but individual leaders promoting themselves by "negotiating" without any consultation or unity with neighbors/allies shows clearly whats on the table. Putin is able to play Macron against Scholz against Xi against Biden against Bennett against Erdogan against many other smaller players, promising them whatever they individually want to hear. He must be loving all this attention and importance, most important man in the world, the phone doesnt stop ringing! Afaik only UK and Baltic states didnt attempt to play this stupid game so far, the rest is ready to sell something to Putin in order to make themselves look great ('how I prevented WW3 and won next elections').
This paragraph seems strange to me. Wouldn’t the one who shines light on a plan to kill the autocrat be highly rewarded? Googling the “vacuum effect” doesn’t yield results that explain this effect further.
Other than that, interesting read, the distortion of information the autocrat receives seems logical.