The main reason I thought Russia's invasion of Ukraine wouldn't cross the line of being a convincing threat was how little off ramps it left everyone involved. It's going to be hard to come up with an off ramp for Putin that is also remotely acceptable to the Ukrainian people.
>President Volodymyr Zelensky might be prepared to formally renounce his pursuit of NATO membership
If Ukrainians feel they have convincingly defended themselves against Russia that might be possible. However, in 1994 Russia signed a Treaty promising not to use military force or economic coercion against Ukraine as a condition for Ukraine giving up it's nukes. With that and the last decade in mind Ukraine is unlikely to consider a signed paper sufficient safety. Outside of NATO's nuclear umbrella they'll need a military defense strong enough to defend against Russia on it's own.
>The difficulty comes with compromises that are not fair. Why should Ukraine not seek EU or NATO membership?
Ukrainians were divided between wanting to align more with EU or more with Russia but by trying to force Ukraine not to join EU through indiscriminate bombing Putin turned a bureaucratic process into an act of defiance against tyranny. Staying out of NATO is one thing but I don't think it's going to be politically possible to tell Ukraine they can't join EU.
>President Volodymyr Zelensky might be prepared to formally renounce his pursuit of NATO membership
If Ukrainians feel they have convincingly defended themselves against Russia that might be possible. However, in 1994 Russia signed a Treaty promising not to use military force or economic coercion against Ukraine as a condition for Ukraine giving up it's nukes. With that and the last decade in mind Ukraine is unlikely to consider a signed paper sufficient safety. Outside of NATO's nuclear umbrella they'll need a military defense strong enough to defend against Russia on it's own.
>The difficulty comes with compromises that are not fair. Why should Ukraine not seek EU or NATO membership?
Ukrainians were divided between wanting to align more with EU or more with Russia but by trying to force Ukraine not to join EU through indiscriminate bombing Putin turned a bureaucratic process into an act of defiance against tyranny. Staying out of NATO is one thing but I don't think it's going to be politically possible to tell Ukraine they can't join EU.