We actually don't have a lot of reserves due to a mix of pissing of Russians (at mid/end '21) and massive speculation.
> Weighing an energy crisis in Europe against a prolonged war in Ukraine I think most europeans will agree with me that the energy crisis is the preferred option.
Lower class people and even lower middle class people are already hurting. I can handle a surprise increase in heating costs and a jump in gas prices, but people who need to drive to work daily aren't that lucky (and, to make matters worse, the government just reduced the home office incentives in Germany).
Once prices hit serious peaks (doubling and up) or actual supply issues appear, support will fade very quickly,even in the privileged classes.
Europeans really don’t want war on their continent. There are options which the governments can employ. Governments can offer free public transit, they can mandate remote work, they can mandate worker pick-ups for large workplaces, etc. There are a lot of inefficiencies in Europe’s energy uses, and during an energy crisis these inefficiencies will have to be tackled no matter the cost. And Europe does have the money to pay for these. Will it be inconvenient? Yes. Will it be devastating, probably not nearly as devastating as the war in Ukraine.
I stand by what I said. Europe really doesn’t want this war, and I bet most people are willing to suffer an energy crisis with the hope that it will stop earlier. And if governments fail to offer remedies during the energy crisis, it is on them and they will suffer in the polls.
> I bet most people are willing to suffer an energy crisis with the hope that it will stop earlier.
and yet, the war is not really contingent on people suffering this energy crisis - it's merely a possibility. Putin can still wage the war and the only true response europe can have is to wage war in return.
War in response to putin will be even harder to swallow after the people have suffered a year of energy rationing i reckon. When your house is cold and food scarce, the people in europe is more likely to be willing to accept appeasement.
Appeasement. The very word conjures up images of brave resistance. Maybe I'm older but I imagine that Europeans have strong cultural memory of just how bad a strategy appeasing dictators is.
Putting up with pain at the gas pump is different to having your children conscripted and sent to die in a far off frozen land.
There is no such thing as "war in return", only global nuclear annihilation - if war in return was a possibility, EU armies would already be engaging Russia in Ukraine.
There is "war in return". It is far from certain that Putin is willing to start nuclear war. In my view, it is unlikely that he would use nuclear weapons. And if he is willing to use them he will use them because he is loosing in Ukraine, without regard as to why is he loosing in Ukraine.
Biggest thing everyone can do on a personal level right now is get more energy efficient to reduce demand
For example we saw a significant drop in electricity consumption when we moved from CFL to LED bulbs
Not everyone can afford efficiency measures so governments will need to subsidise them - particularly in the UK where the housing stock needs huge improvements (though that depends on a Conservative government doing the right thing)
Industrial energy consumption is another challenge though
We actually don't have a lot of reserves due to a mix of pissing of Russians (at mid/end '21) and massive speculation.
> Weighing an energy crisis in Europe against a prolonged war in Ukraine I think most europeans will agree with me that the energy crisis is the preferred option.
Lower class people and even lower middle class people are already hurting. I can handle a surprise increase in heating costs and a jump in gas prices, but people who need to drive to work daily aren't that lucky (and, to make matters worse, the government just reduced the home office incentives in Germany).
Once prices hit serious peaks (doubling and up) or actual supply issues appear, support will fade very quickly,even in the privileged classes.