I hope I'm not misreading your comment but it sounds a little to casual, no? An invasion by sea would probably be a lot more brutal than what's happening in the Ukraine, with a lot more civilian and military casualties, and of course a much bigger impact on the world economy. And of course, countries succeeding with territorial expansions would set a really bad precedent for the 21st century.
We should hope to sit out difficult geopolitical situations as long as possible. The world will probably be a lot different in 20 and 50 years. In Germany we had 40 years of separation and cold war and then suddenly - happy reunification!
No modern military would do a ww2 style beach landing. It's why we retired battleships.
You send in naval air forces to obliterate defenses on shore then send in marines.
This is probably why China is deeply invested in long range fighters (their modern fighter has significantly more range than US ones). And aircraft carriers as of late. That and enough surface warships to defend said carriers.
There's plenty of reason to be worried about a war in Taiwan. Heavy casualties, potential for nuclear escalation, the sanctions, and the loss of manufacturing and trade would be felt throughout the world heavily ( unlike Russia where it's mostly the Russians feeling them).
Hopefully the Chinese government is paying attention to Ukraine and relearning a lesson that they should have learned while studying the Napoleonic wars - a dedicated population is impossible to subdue from an invader. And hopefully they do realise, they will be an invader regardless of the history between the two entities.
Taiwan doesn’t need to import food from the mainland to survive. China is hemmed in by Japan, Taiwan, Russia, and korea, meaning they don’t have much chance of a naval blockade either. Maybe Kinmen Island, but I’m not sure how that part of Taiwan would survive any conflict with China. 127k people live there, so I guess that’s something China could starve, or just annex it outright.
If there's a blockade on kinmen everyone could just live on the liquor. ;) Not sure if Matsu produces things, but surely they can still fish in the shallows...
But yes true that, Taiwan is agriculturally self sufficient. We had lots more local and lots less imported FMCG during pandemic, but nothing really changed.
Thanks for educating me (and everyone else here) :)
The reference that's based on is really fascinating too: https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2570 (note the % of wastage chart, ~30% average, unsure how to convert but if we wasted none of that (which may not be achievable even during hypothetical 'blockade', but hey) by how much would self-sufficiency raise is interesting.)
Thank you very much, honored that you like my "hit" but please tell me where the Taiwanese Silicate producers are?
But maybe you did not understood the reference...
And even when you don't waste anything it's 68% right? That's still not 100%, and without fishing-boats (blockage remember?)...well i leave that to you.
A naval blockade in disputed waters the US is saying ( but not guaranteeing) they'll protect can easily escalate. But it's true that it wouldn't result in a direct bloodbath outright.
