> I don't want anyone getting the impression that I'm flippantly suggesting that Russia could easily go on with business as usual through alternative means.
One would obviously hope that the cumulative effects of the various sanctions make it difficult or impossible for Russia to continue with business as usual.
However, part of me worries about the abilities of the oligarch network.
I mean, if you look at the various flight tracking websites. Sure a lot of the commercial aviation traffic has been killed off, but there are still large numbers of private jets floating around in and out of Moscow. How is this possible ? Because the sanctions are only against Russian registered aircraft, and most of those private jets are registered elsewhere and/or are hidden behind charter companies registered elsewhere.
Quite possibly this extends to finance ? I imagine there is potential to find alternative financing routes. It wouldn't be able to last forever, for sure, but might last longer than the West anticipates.
In many ways, the oligarch jet movements are a positive sign: they're having to move around (or at least move their assets around) and incur both significant cost and scrutiny in the process. For all you know, a Bermudan registered Gulfstream moving from Monaco to SVO, Moscow, contains a pissed off oligarch watching his lifestyle and investments crumble.
Or, it could be a strategic hedge to ensure he retains control of the jet.
Either way, the sanctions are causing an effect, and by all accounts a significant one. Battles are won or lost by explosives, inexplicably awful things and largely brave men being sacrificed, by their choice or others. Wars are won or lost by economics.
I worry a little that we will test the limits of sanctions. Sanctions kill, yet are often not considered an act of war. We are used to imposing them on countries with little world power or ability to fight back.
If the sanctions are harsh enough, is there potential for a military response?
It does to finance as well, however the intent is to also target 2nd and 3th degree actors because it is extremely common to hide the true owner of the money in Finance (tax evasion, sanction evasions, ...)
Here SIGINTEL can contribute a lot but also just better data pooling between the countries and more modern methods of detection.
This international commitment to combat money laundering has so far been lacking but it seems this invasion is giving the momentum needed to put such systems and collaborations in place.
It will still take some time though before it's in place.
One would obviously hope that the cumulative effects of the various sanctions make it difficult or impossible for Russia to continue with business as usual.
However, part of me worries about the abilities of the oligarch network.
I mean, if you look at the various flight tracking websites. Sure a lot of the commercial aviation traffic has been killed off, but there are still large numbers of private jets floating around in and out of Moscow. How is this possible ? Because the sanctions are only against Russian registered aircraft, and most of those private jets are registered elsewhere and/or are hidden behind charter companies registered elsewhere.
Quite possibly this extends to finance ? I imagine there is potential to find alternative financing routes. It wouldn't be able to last forever, for sure, but might last longer than the West anticipates.