On: Global chip shortage may soon turn into an oversupply crisis

[xadhominemx]

There are not going to be any bankruptcies even in a severe oversupply situation. Chip manufacturers are much higher margin and better capitalized than in the past, and a lot of the riskier capacity expansion this time around has been financed by customers

[netcan → xadhominemx]

This is probably true, but it may not mean any less consolidation.

Consolidation is a fairly easy bet to place though from a 2022 POV, so I guess GP (and I) are predicting cold during winter.

[xadhominemx → netcan]

I can’t think of any more major consolidation that can take place. Maybe within NAND, but for different reasons as there’s not really risk of a long lasting supply glut in that market.

[thatguy0900 → netcan]

Governments have/may start seeing chipmaking as something of national security, right? So would they let a great amount of consolidation occur or will every continent have its own heavily subsidized chip industry