I'm going to qualify this by saying this is specifically in my professional patch.
The wind fields around fires are not unpredictable. Landscape scale fires are driven by regional scale winds. Yes, there are some semi-complex interactions between terrain, atmospheric conditions, etc, but these are able to be modelled quickly and effectively. Stating that the winds are unpredictable is actually dangerous.
What is not unusual to see is that front line firefighters will be reporting a wind travelling in toward the front of the fire, and that this completely contradicts what predictive fire behaviour reports suggest. What they are seeing is that the fire is creating a convective updraft which necessitates an indraft that is probably contrary to regional wind direction. The fire will still, largely speaking, progress in the direction that the regional winds push it.
Perhaps your statement could have been improved by suggesting that the wind indraft near a landscape scale fire is both happening at a high speed, but also can have significant eddies induced by the fire, landscape, and vegetation. This would make it very difficult for a drone to remain stable and on course, let along drop ordinance with any accuracy.
There is a further issue of landscape scale. It is completely ridiculous to place these things all over the landscape. They would be much better as a deployable capability when there is a fire going so that new ignitions can be addressed. That said, most places with large bushfires have helicopters deployed with a much higher capacity for extinguishment than the retardant balls.
I find myself asking, as someone who loves new tech developments, "is this just new tech with glossy marketing for the sake of new tech?"
> The wind fields around fires are not unpredictable.
They are on a drone scale (the purpose of my comment) and you've acknowledged this yourself:
> but also can have significant eddies induced by the fire, landscape, and vegetation. This would make it very difficult for a drone to remain stable and on course, let along drop ordinance with any accuracy.
> What is not unusual to see is that front line firefighters will be reporting a wind travelling in toward the front of the fire, and that this completely contradicts what predictive fire behaviour reports suggest. What they are seeing is that the fire is creating a convective updraft which necessitates an indraft that is probably contrary to regional wind direction.
Considering that "wind" is how we describe "air moving", they're not wrong, they're just looking at it from a very different scale to you.
The wind fields around fires are not unpredictable. Landscape scale fires are driven by regional scale winds. Yes, there are some semi-complex interactions between terrain, atmospheric conditions, etc, but these are able to be modelled quickly and effectively. Stating that the winds are unpredictable is actually dangerous.
What is not unusual to see is that front line firefighters will be reporting a wind travelling in toward the front of the fire, and that this completely contradicts what predictive fire behaviour reports suggest. What they are seeing is that the fire is creating a convective updraft which necessitates an indraft that is probably contrary to regional wind direction. The fire will still, largely speaking, progress in the direction that the regional winds push it.
Perhaps your statement could have been improved by suggesting that the wind indraft near a landscape scale fire is both happening at a high speed, but also can have significant eddies induced by the fire, landscape, and vegetation. This would make it very difficult for a drone to remain stable and on course, let along drop ordinance with any accuracy.
There is a further issue of landscape scale. It is completely ridiculous to place these things all over the landscape. They would be much better as a deployable capability when there is a fire going so that new ignitions can be addressed. That said, most places with large bushfires have helicopters deployed with a much higher capacity for extinguishment than the retardant balls.
I find myself asking, as someone who loves new tech developments, "is this just new tech with glossy marketing for the sake of new tech?"