The stimulus is absolutely a factor. I agree there are other things pushing on both the demand side of the equation as well as the supply side. But UBI will never increase supply - at best you'd craft it in such a way so as to be neutral (though I don't know how you'd pull this off - someone has to work the crappy jobs)
But UBI absolutely will increase demand - and therefore prices until the same equilibrium is met but at a higher price. Basically, the poor will still be poor, but the rich will be poorer too. If a race to the lowest common quality of life is what you want, UBI is the answer. For any other scenario keep looking.
Saying that UBI would be canceled out by demand increases sounds absolutely hyperbolic.
What would you do instead? Continue existing trickle down policies? Use weird neoliberal tax breaks that require an accountant to utilize?
If we continue down the path of the top 10% in the US owning 89% of stocks, we’re going to have bigger problems than slight price increases on essentials.
We already have the answer. 2019 was arguably the greatest year for the American economy on record. Real wages for the lowest quartile were rising at one of the fastest (if not the fastest) rates in history. Poverty as measured among Black families was at its lowest record since WW2. Unemployment was 3ish% and people were coming off the bench to work. Inflation was < 2% and in some measurements hovering around 0.
So what was the big secret? You won't want to hear it. First and foremost it was the tax cuts and jobs act. Yeah yeah, a giveaway for the rich the media says. Nonsense. Second it was getting the government out of the way of the economy and business. Removing regulations was absolutely a factor in the success. And finally it was using our influence to benefit the US first and foremost (tariffs, foreign policy etc). Of course the media has poo pooed all these things, particularly because of who was at the helm when they happened. And I don't expect anyone on HN to agree with me.
But UBI absolutely will increase demand - and therefore prices until the same equilibrium is met but at a higher price. Basically, the poor will still be poor, but the rich will be poorer too. If a race to the lowest common quality of life is what you want, UBI is the answer. For any other scenario keep looking.