The USSR was closeish to the US population. China has 4x the US population. That roughly means they only need to reach 1/4 the living standards of the US to have a larger economy. Seems pretty doable.
> China will continue to grow and get very close to the size of the American economy.
Given that they are hitting a demographic cliff in a few years, it is not so guaranteed anymore. It will be an interesting next couple of decades for China.
> This year they grew at 8.5 %
A lot of that is real estate, the same real estate that speculators are banking on will sell to poor farmers for a million dollars when they re-locate to cities (and the same farmers who aren't having that many kids anymore...).
Sure and that slows GDP growth by 40-50%. They’re still growing by a lot. It just moves the date by a few years.
Demographic doom is frequently cited for China but I rarely hear about the doom of Europe which has worse demographics. Demographics can be topped up using immigration. Without immigration the US would also be in demographic decline.
> They’re still growing by a lot. It just moves the date by a few years.
The problem is that their average age moves up, and productivity decreases as people hit or near retirement. Unless China starts opening up to immigration (not impossible), they are going to be Japan without being rich yet.
> I rarely hear about the doom of Europe which has worse demographics.
Europe has immigration. China does not. If China is willing to embrace e.g. the African aspiring immigrants who have come to Guangzhou in recent years, things could change quickly, but I'm not really seeing. Japan did not, and that's why you can get a house for a reasonable price in Tokyo these days.
Most people from third world countries who move to the USA do so because of the infrastructure and quality of life, not because they read 'Bill of Rights'.
Also machines are coming for your jobs, you wont need that many people anyway.
Western/Northern Europe have somewhat better demographics, thanks to immigration. Eastern Europe is in a deep demographic pit but is still recovering from poverty so it has a lot of room for economic growth still (and buoys up Western Europe).
Doom of Southern Europe, however, is talked about quite a lot.
To be fair that's only because it bounced back from the covid impacts in the previous year.It had been hovering around the 2.5% mark for the previous decade.
On the other hand no economist believes the figures that come out of China, they are far too consistent.
