The main issue for me is that its a big number - Amazon and Visa will have much more detailed models, but the direction of travel is the same - will people swap to Mastercard or just not buy?
That question seems absurd. Of course they'll just get a Mastercard if they don't already have one. The U.K. is full of neobanks that will give you one on your phone in 5 minutes.
When not all banks supported Apple Pay here in Australia I would occasionally have people quite interested in paying with their phone after seeing me do it or hearing me talk about not carrying a wallet. I'd direct them to the two neobanks I use and told them they could be paying with their phone in two minutes. All lost interest.
I think transaction share (ie number of swipes).
The main issue for me is that its a big number - Amazon and Visa will have much more detailed models, but the direction of travel is the same - will people swap to Mastercard or just not buy?