Ask HN: How to know when to give up on your startup?

[throwaway16185]

Hey guys, throwaway here for obvious reasons.

I have been bootstrapping a media sharing startup while working full-time for the past 1.5 years. Recently in June, it was getting so what I believe to be a lot traffic and growing. Growing 30%/mo since January, we hit a high of 250,000 uniques/mo in July.

My co-founder and I quit our jobs to work on it full time, and to grow it out, but now after the summer the site traffic has declined. It seems I quit my job when it "peaked", maybe this site was a passing fad? This month I only got 167,000 uniques -- a 35% drop.

So here I am. I'm not sure what to do. Should I shelf it, or take this as a sign and just give up? I told myself I'd try one more month to turn the traffic again towards a positive track, but I'm running out of savings and running out of ideas on how to turn the traffic.

I guess what I'm looking for is advice from those in my situation before -- did you shelf your project, or just keep working on it? I want to keep working on it, but I also want to make sure my reality is in check and that I'm not deluded by my own hope for it to grow bigger. How do you know when to quit?

[hugh3]

Why are you measuring your level of success in uniques per month rather than dollars?

How many dollars are you pulling in? Does it cover your costs? Do you think that more hits per month would be enough to make it cover your costs, or do you need to rethink how you're bringing the cash in?

edit: Don't worry too much about a drop from July to August though! I know it's disappointing, but you can't start thinking that a single setback is a trend.

[throwaway16185 → hugh3]

Mostly because I have no clear business model. Users to me is potential that I can possible later convert into a round or selling.

It pays for itself, but doesn't make me any money. =/

[fezzl → throwaway16185]

Then your problem is that you don't have a business model (much less a validated one), not that your traffic is falling. Even if your traffic is growing as before, you need to be similarly worried.

Get your business model figured out as quickly as possible, and cut your expenses like hell in the mean time. Get cash coming in from other sources at the moment (does not need to be from your startup). Hell, slap on some AdSense on your 200,000 uniques/mth site.

Honestly, quitting and going back to a job because of this little "setback" that still nonetheless leaves you at 167,000 uniques per month is pretty cowardly.

[rhizome → throwaway16185]

I don't know what you mean by "media sharing," but you're going to have to figure out where money can come from. It doesn't have to be "a business model," just something to sell. Eyeballs, accounts...whatever.

[rorrr → throwaway16185]

Then you don't have a startup. All you have is some website.

Figure out how to make money from it, or don't waste your time. If it breaks even, you can just keep it running, but from my experience, sites require maintenance, and, depending on how much you make per hour, it can be pretty expensive to support something that doesn't pay back.

[dundas]

I went through the same thing except I quit my job almost 4 years ago. What I will say is that ups and downs are part of the startup. The success of most startups and businesses is determined how much the founders are willing to endure until they find that secret formula, but in most cases it wont come over night.

Many of my friends have startups that looked like they were done, but turned into great successes.

If I were you I'd do the following:

1. Look at your traffic sources where was your traffic coming from before?

2. Audit your product to understand if there are things you can do to bring previous visitors back, and bring their friends with them (social integration).

3. Look for other opportunities to monetize. If you're strapped for cash look for other ways to make money like consulting gigs.

Realistically you are just getting started, so if you have it in you just keep pushing/learning/iterating.

[ohashi]

August generally gets the biggest dip in traffic for most sites because of all the vacation and other non-in-front-of-computer activities. I would look into what changed from traffic sources but not really worry unless you don't get much of a bounceback in september.

[g-garron]

Maybe you should try to get a job again, or part time job.

That way you can generate some income for you, and still have some time to give your startup another chance.

Just my two cents.

[mapster]

Are you sure you did enough testing? If you had a nibble, test it until you get more interest, and iterate.

[trevelyan]

A lot of online businesses are somewhat seasonal.

If students use your product heavily, this is normal.

[susanhi]

Apply for YC's next session.