What does that even mean? You can produce a copy of Picasso that is indistinguishable from an original. You can produce counterfeits of most "real world" items that are indistinguishable.
The scarcity comes from Picasso painting it. There are also great paintings Picasso did not paint which are worthless.
It is not artificially scarce. Picasso could've painted a Guernica every month for the rest of his life. Even then, he would've only painted a few thousand paintings. Instead of doing that, he painted the other thousands of paintings...
Any NFT could have infinite copies. You simply decide how artificially scarce you want it to be. Picasso could not have painted infinite Guernicas if he so chose.
You can buy a print of Picasso's works. The value doesn't come from the art. It comes from the fact that Picasso painted it.
It's the same way for collector guitars. People want guitars famous musicians played. There are plenty other versions of that exact guitar. But they weren't played by the famous musician. That's what makes it truly scarce.
Not gonna lie, I think an inauthentic art reproduction is going to set me back more than an minting an inauthentic claim to own a gif on a blockchain.
It'll look better on my wall though, which is why I'd consider commissioning it.
For related reasons, I suspect that whilst more people would flock to see the actual Sistine Chapel ceiling than one I commissioned for my living room, I'd still have an easier time wowing people with the living room artwork than a NFT with a gif, even if it was countersigned by the Vatican
It's almost like the important bit of the provenance for appreciation is in having the actual physical original the actual artist worked on, not a certificate saying you sent some money to someone on an aftermarket and exactly the same gif everybody else has
I think you countered your own point - the value is in verifiable authenticity - whether that be an authority (museum), certificate, or the blockchain.
For example, consider a baseball or other trading card. Can be easily replicated/printed - yet certified authentic cards have value much more value. Why?