Would it be fair to say that there is some value, but the quantity is unknown?
> Creating an artificial prediction market is more like gambling where people are transferring risk for its own sake.
I suppose this is part of what is involved, but "transferring risk for its own sake" doesn't seem like a comprehensive description of what they are.
> Nothing wrong with that but I am not sure what the purpose would be.
I think it's useful to always consider that there may be more to see than what catches one's eye.
> As said, these markets are also unlikely to add any new information either because the kind of events being talked about some largely random.
If I rephrase this to:
>> Because [the kind of events being talked about are largely random] it logically follows that [these markets are unlikely to add any new information].
...it seems to me that this is an imperfect way of thinking about it. Perhaps I have mischaracterized your intended meaning?
Agreed.
Would it be fair to say that there is some value, but the quantity is unknown?
> Creating an artificial prediction market is more like gambling where people are transferring risk for its own sake.
I suppose this is part of what is involved, but "transferring risk for its own sake" doesn't seem like a comprehensive description of what they are.
> Nothing wrong with that but I am not sure what the purpose would be.
I think it's useful to always consider that there may be more to see than what catches one's eye.
> As said, these markets are also unlikely to add any new information either because the kind of events being talked about some largely random.
If I rephrase this to:
>> Because [the kind of events being talked about are largely random] it logically follows that [these markets are unlikely to add any new information].
...it seems to me that this is an imperfect way of thinking about it. Perhaps I have mischaracterized your intended meaning?