I wholeheartedly agree with trying to learn lessons from Taleb's writings and applying it to Software Project/Risk Management.
OTOH, trying to interpret Agile/Scrum methodology in terms of the above is nothing more than Putting Lipstick on a Pig i.e. a valueless/useless endeavour.
If nothing, it was valuable for me already. My goal was not to preach agile (much less scrum), but to actually try to find a common rationale behind the good and bad experiences that people do feel they had coming from agile. And for me (maybe for other devs too), finding an explanation that makes sense, a more general theory, is very rewarding in itself, it allows contradictory ideas to fit together in my head
If you are trying to figure out and model something in your mind, then i am fully there with you.
The problem is your marrying it to Agile and its Manifesto. They are a bunch of platitudes, there is no exact definition far less a process/methodology, it can mean anything, everything and nothing in a given context and thus have nothing concrete to recommend themselves. As you can see in this thread, the words Agile/Scrum invoke rather strong feelings amongst the HN crowd and hence your message has gotten lost.
Instead, if you were to do a article on what/how you feel Taleb's ideas can be applied to Software Project/Risk Management, that would be an interesting and welcome read.
OTOH, trying to interpret Agile/Scrum methodology in terms of the above is nothing more than Putting Lipstick on a Pig i.e. a valueless/useless endeavour.