COIN has lost 25% since IPO (in that time, GOOG, FB, MSFT, AAPL, HOOD are up, PP is even, and SQ is down marginally), and their offers aren't particularly better than <anywhere else>, so it doesn't seem like this is true.
Like, even if you think crypto is going to be super relevant, there's tons of other cryto startups. Coinbase has or had first mover advantage, but that's no longer an enormous advantage.
Coinbase’s stock is currently approximately equal to the IPO price and the IPO was six months ago. Coinbase and Robinhood (another rocketship) both experienced a pop after their respective IPOs and later dropped back down near IPO price. This isn’t a particularly relevant metric, in my view. At the IPO, the rocketship factor is already priced in. Look at the company’s trajectory over the decade it has existed.
> Coinbase’s stock is currently approximately equal to the IPO price
Coinbase is down a little over 27% since IPO, at a time when the wider US stock market is up around 10%. That's not "approximately equal" in any meaningful way.
> At the IPO, the rocketship factor is already priced in.
I'll agree with you here - there was a ton of hype and the IPO price was largely based on an expected rocketship trajectory that failed to materialize. Its extremely telling that many of their executives have cashed out 100% or nearly 100% of their available stock options.
If you got stock for free because you work for coinbase, does it matter much it went down? I mean it's still around $250 each, that quickly adds up.
> their offers aren't particularly better than <anywhere else>
citation needed, I mean 'anywhere' is a big space. I'm seeing north of $100K on a quick google, that's a lot more than most places pay. Or are you speaking from a privileged, SF-blinkered position?
"Stock for free" doesn't equate since it's stock-based compensation. To some degree you expect it to retain its value and generally go up. Some companies might create an expectation of a greater appreciation even. But it's not a "oh I get paid X for my salary and then so much more for free." If you get stock at any company you compare those offers and the expected outcomes financially. There is a reason salary+stock is considered "total compensation."
And in terms of it "not mattering that it went down." Of course that matters. Companies do things to keep comp consistent but if the stock does go down quarter over quarter people see that as a personal loss and a possible sinking ship. They can work somewhere else that is more stable or eve n has a positive trajectory. I have know people who had a family to think of and moved to a Apple since it's much more reliable.
Correct, and it has more room to grow than FAANG. By that I don’t mean it’s undervalued - but rather that the implied call option you get from a 4-year grant is more valuable.
They don't do 4 yr grants anymore. You basically get a recurring 1 yr grant, so your upside now is limited to just that year. It trades risk for upside.
What do you mean by stock for free? Do you only consider the base salary as the actual salary and stocks as bonus which could be $0? Because that doesn't make any sense...
> If you got stock for free because you work for coinbase, does it matter much it went down? I mean it's still around $250 each, that quickly adds up.
That's where the "isn't better than other offers" part comes in. If you get 40K in stock from Coinbase or 40K in stock from Robinhood, and one went up and one didn't...
> citation needed, I mean 'anywhere' is a big space. I'm seeing north of $100K on a quick google, that's a lot more than most places pay.
I'm speaking as compared to the list of stock tickers I listed.
> Or are you speaking from a privileged, SF-blinkered position?
If we're at the point where Coinbase can't hire "privileged" employees and is having to settle for ones who don't have other options, I think that makes my case for me.
Where in your analysis do you talk about how these other crypto startups have (1) easier onboarding/KYC than COIN, (2) access to more coins to trade (3) better tooling (4) better fees (5) etc. etc. ?
Like, even if you think crypto is going to be super relevant, there's tons of other cryto startups. Coinbase has or had first mover advantage, but that's no longer an enormous advantage.