Apple will definitely have to revisit the App Store economics. Obviously, more choice is great for both the user and the developer alike, but I am a bit worried about the future of the App Store access. In my opinion, the original brilliance of the App Store model was that trying is free and you pay on success. This is a stark contrast to previous models where the developer had to bring an often significant initial investment for listing/API licensing/accounting with the success being uncertain. IMO, the App Store model is what made small-time development possible. Whatever changes they implement to offset the revenue loss from the successful apps, I hope it will be just as easy (and free) to access the App Store in the future.
Apple may not make a lot of money from these high quality free/cheap apps from small development shops. But indirectly, that quality content is one of the reasons people buy an iOS device over an Android.
Crippling that is crippling their own bottom line and they know that all too well.
Maybe I’m completely off the mark but I feel that if Apple isn’t making good money on their stores, they will shorten their support period for their phones.
Apple will lose all incentive to makes sure their products last since their profit will come from selling new phones only - just like Android phone makers; right now Apple would rather you keep using an old iPhone and continue to give them money via the App Store than risk you switching to another brand and losing all revenue from you.
I quite like my phones lasting a long time - also more electronic waste isn’t good for anyone.
It is difficult to foresee the practical implication of these changes. Discussion about fairness notwithstanding, Apple‘s economic model had it’s simple elegance.
Frankly, I hope that they will decide to take the cut to their revenue and continue to operate the store at a lower profit, maybe even reducing the „tax“ to 10% across the board. This will be a hit to the shareholders, but who cares (I say it as a shareholder) at it will ensure that the ecosystem stays healthy. Apple should take this as an opportunity to improve the App Store instead of resting on their laurels. Also, I think the growth of the Mac business will more than offset the loss of the App Store revenue.
I doubt they will reduce their cut, alternative stores or not. If they are forced to allow 3rd party stores, I bet they will move immediately to the licensing model - like that used by Sony/Microsoft/Nintendo for their game consoles; i.e. if you want your app to run on the iPhone, you have have it signed by Apple and pay Apple a licensing fee per copy sold.
