The demand for programmers is largely becoming a myth in my experiences. I work in public sector digitalisation in Denmark and as such come into contact with a lot of private sector companies from whom we buy development, I also work as an external examiner for CS students to keep up with the field and spot potential candidates.
A decade ago my region of the country would produce maybe 50 fresh CS candidates a year, now it’s closer to 500 spread across multiple different educations. This may not sound like a lot, but in a region of 1 million people it’s actually quite a lot, and those are the technical CS/SE types not the myriad of soft IT/design/communication educations which produce a further couple of thousand each year. It’s like this because we (as in the employers) have been telling everyone we needed more and still need more for that same decade. But this is a half truth. We don’t actually need more people to become CS candidates, we need more trained plumbers who are proficient in X technology that we can use for 5-10 years until they leave us or we replace them with someone cheaper. And how do you get cheap labour? Well, one way is to make sure enough people are educated in what you need them to be, and while it may have been the case that the world needed more CS candidates a decade ago that is no longer the case, but it’ll take a while for young people to realise this.
Well that’s one part of it, the other part is how the educational organisations educate our young people by giving them the wrong kind of skills. I’m not exactly sure why they’ve abandoned teaching people actual computer science, but the part that the most students fail on and the part that shrinks year by year is now computers work. I can see how the fundamentals aren’t as necessary as they were in the 90ies when I got my degree, and I also remember how much some of us hated that stuff even back then. But it’s what’s required to fill the best paying jobs, like running the cobol systems for a bank. Cobol itself isn’t hard, a cobol system is hard because it came with nothing and was build in a time where everyone invented the wheel their own way. So what you need to become a good hire for such a system is all the basic CS knowledge that nobody no longer teaches so that you may understand and reverse engineer whatever all those cobol programmers did in the 50 years before you arrived.
It’ll be sort of interesting to see where it lands us though, but I’d frankly get into actual plumbing if I was young today because that’s bound to be a better career for most people who aren’t aces in either the technical or the financial/management side of CS.
> decade ago my region of the country would produce maybe 50 fresh CS candidates a year, now it’s closer to 500 spread across multiple different educations.
A degree is not the same as “talent”. The degree doesn’t even mean you really “learned” the fundamentals, so much as you were able to regurgitate information and pass exams.
I’m a Principal at Amazon. One issue I see among CS graduates is a lack of understanding in very basic CS fundamentals. On paper, these candidates have CS bachelors degrees. On the other hand, they struggle to pick the right algorithmic approach when something is clearly a graph or tree traversal problem.
I don’t disagree with you but in Danish culture you get a degree or you work as unskilled labour in 99% of the cases.
Even if you don’t “need” a degree you still get one because it would be a serious handicap if you didn’t and our educational system doesn’t cost the individual money. In fact we pay you $1300 a month for 6-7 years while you work on your higher education. I’m sure we could debate the system, but the result is that almost everyone in CS/SE get a degree of at least academy level once they finish the mandatory 10 years of school + 3 years of gymnasium granting them access to the higher educations, and as such the number of educated is a very strong indicator of how many new programmers are entering the field.
> the result is that almost everyone in CS/SE get a degree of at least academy level
But this doesn’t mean these graduates are skilled? From your explanation, it sounds like there’s an incentive to get a degree - both cash payments from the government and an opportunity to avoid labor work.
> as such the number of educated is a very strong indicator of how many new programmers are entering the field.
But “educated” in this context means they passed. It doesn’t mean all or even half of these graduates understand the discipline sufficiently to be productive employees or even work at a FANG tier company.
I guess my point is - the market might be saturated with these graduates, at least on paper. But that’s not the same as the market being saturated with talented programmers, engineers, admins, or whatever the job title is.
A decade ago my region of the country would produce maybe 50 fresh CS candidates a year, now it’s closer to 500 spread across multiple different educations. This may not sound like a lot, but in a region of 1 million people it’s actually quite a lot, and those are the technical CS/SE types not the myriad of soft IT/design/communication educations which produce a further couple of thousand each year. It’s like this because we (as in the employers) have been telling everyone we needed more and still need more for that same decade. But this is a half truth. We don’t actually need more people to become CS candidates, we need more trained plumbers who are proficient in X technology that we can use for 5-10 years until they leave us or we replace them with someone cheaper. And how do you get cheap labour? Well, one way is to make sure enough people are educated in what you need them to be, and while it may have been the case that the world needed more CS candidates a decade ago that is no longer the case, but it’ll take a while for young people to realise this.
Well that’s one part of it, the other part is how the educational organisations educate our young people by giving them the wrong kind of skills. I’m not exactly sure why they’ve abandoned teaching people actual computer science, but the part that the most students fail on and the part that shrinks year by year is now computers work. I can see how the fundamentals aren’t as necessary as they were in the 90ies when I got my degree, and I also remember how much some of us hated that stuff even back then. But it’s what’s required to fill the best paying jobs, like running the cobol systems for a bank. Cobol itself isn’t hard, a cobol system is hard because it came with nothing and was build in a time where everyone invented the wheel their own way. So what you need to become a good hire for such a system is all the basic CS knowledge that nobody no longer teaches so that you may understand and reverse engineer whatever all those cobol programmers did in the 50 years before you arrived.
It’ll be sort of interesting to see where it lands us though, but I’d frankly get into actual plumbing if I was young today because that’s bound to be a better career for most people who aren’t aces in either the technical or the financial/management side of CS.