HN is the best way of learning about future tech trends before they happen. But it's not because there's any kind of prescient consensus here. The important stuff is a small minority. You have to do your own filtering.
I was ahead of the curve on Bitcoin, VR, and deep learning because I read about them early here, but they weren't the most popular things at the time. HN hates Bitcoin to this day. But I learned about it from HN and decided that HN was wrong about it. When lots of people are wrong about something, I see it as an opportunity.
It's not clear to me if this is predictive. E.g. HN has been right about AMD. Years ago when people were talking about AMD it was worth peanuts and look at it now. I don't think it's a case of a group of people being right/wrong, it has more to do with since you're fed all the perspectives, you can find the right/wrong ones yourself and take action accordingly.
Yes, I'm not saying HN is wrong about everything. HN isn't opposed to my other examples of VR or deep learning (though there are certainly people who argue strenuously that deep learning is a dead end and GOFAI is the way forward). I'm just saying that when the consensus about something is wrong, that's an opportunity to get ahead of the curve. And reading HN is a great way to gather the information you need to decide whether the consensus is right or not. But you have to figure that out for yourself.
How do you measure what is wrong? In the example of Bitcoin, if the measurement is price, I think that's a misunderstanding of what people are criticizing.
The criticisms have changed over time. But I'm pretty sure the early criticisms were mostly wrong, and I'm certain that the people who criticized it early missed big opportunities, even if Bitcoin itself ultimately fails (which is of course still a possibility).
I was ahead of the curve on Bitcoin, VR, and deep learning because I read about them early here, but they weren't the most popular things at the time. HN hates Bitcoin to this day. But I learned about it from HN and decided that HN was wrong about it. When lots of people are wrong about something, I see it as an opportunity.