I see this a lot but don't understand why. China has every motivation to prop up the Taliban.
A sister comment already noted the mineral resources, but don't forget the main function of Afghanistan as a nation: production of heroin. Narcopolitics are so fantastically more significant than ever gets any attention from "surface" media, but this is the name of the game. Chinese fentanyl has taken over the global opiate black market, so they have every incentive to support the Taliban who will repress the rival heroin trade over the US-backed government who supported it.
> Ironically, the only power that has demonstrated an ability to cripple the Afghan drug industry is the Taliban.
> In July 2000, when the Taliban controlled most of the country, its reclusive one-eyed leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, declared that opium was un-Islamic and imposed a ban on growing poppies.
> Much to the surprise of the rest of the world, the ban worked. Afraid to cross the Taliban, Afghan farmers immediately ceased planting poppies. The United Nations estimated that poppy cultivation plunged by 90 percent from 2000 to 2001.
I'm skeptical of this common claim. Perhaps that was true when they were an insurgent force needing funds, but I don't think it will continue now that they are in power. Afghan heroin production was at its lowest - essentially none - after it was completely forbidden the last time the Taliban were in power in 2000/2001.
China can have both, I don't see why having both Afghanistan and the Golden Triangle in your pocket is a bad thing if you're interested in opiate production at the global scale.
100% on board. but one scenario: if Taliban supported uprising in Xinjiang. That was one of the things talked about at their recent summit. CCP loves to say don't mess with our internal 'affairs'
> Narcopolitics are so fantastically more significant than ever gets any attention from "surface" media
Indeed! The speculation is that there are people very high up in Chinese system who are cashing up on industrial scale fentanyl production.
Syrian Assad family now makes more money on captagon than they were doing before the war from all their businesses.
Putin Vladimir, the Russian president, made his early fortune on providing legal cover to drug trade in Saint Petersburg, and later delved into the business himself. Russia now runs a state business of drug smuggling through its military missions abroad, and diplomatic missions.
And of course, most famously, Great Britain used to be the biggest narcostate in history. Fortunes of many modern day British elites were built in these times.
Any book recommendations on this topic? Particularly the last point - always crazy to learn how the rich of today made their fortunes from now-illegal means (drug trafficking, slavery, arms dealing, etc.).
China is likely to gain trillions from their belt and road initiative expanding into Afghanistan and from getting involved with the mining of the $3T in mineral resources identified previously in Afghanistan. China has already recognized the new Taliban government and the Taliban previously welcomed a new relationship with China that would protect Chinese interests, as they put it. China literally met with the incoming Taliban leader earlier this year to forge that friendship.
They have also invested heavily in their relationship with Pakistan. Pakistan protected Bin Ladin and are deeply involved in Afghanistan. China can lean on Pakistan to compliment its direct relationship with the Taliban.
Not to mention that the Chinese are significantly more motivated to make Afghanistan work.
As a sign of their influence, the Taliban has said that whatever happens in China’s borders is their business. This was in response to questions about the Uighurs, which, you know, if you’re an Islamic regime you might at least pretend to care about.
It might be better put as "the Han Chinese think everyone else is a barbarian savage, but also, they prefer to leave their vassal states to run their internal affairs themselves. They don't call them barbarian savages on a daily basis."
large scale "boots on the ground" invasions are pretty hard to sell to the american public. they don't generally want to see american soldiers die without a good reason. retaliating against the people who harbored bin laden is already a pretty good reason, and liberating the subjects of an oppressive regime is icing on the cake. of course, it's hard to paint a regime as oppressive without also calling them "backwards". after all, if they were as advanced as us westerners, surely they would have a free democratic society already. /s
Riiiight. With all those ports, infrastructure, and nice easy mountain terrain to navigate.
And let’s say China does somehow befriend the Taliban and build all this infrastructure, and import hundreds of thousands of workers that somehow the Taliban doesn’t decide are yet another empire to kick out. What do you think they do with these resources? They make iPhones. That westerners buy.
And again, even if they do somehow make this happen. Why should anybody care? It’s not like the US is losing these resources or something. And why would China, as large of a country as it is, need these resources? Is it even profitable to extract?
I keep seeing this narrative and it seems to me to be hugely superficial at best. China and Russia would probably prefer the U.S. just keep wasting money and attention in Afghanistan.
Wow jeez when you put it that simply of course they’ll just pay local warlords who totally won’t steal money for fake employees, and they’ll totally have these Afghan people who are hard working and really eager for that 9-5 lifestyle to get out of their own village to “mine” for Chinese engineers and managers.
I hate to be flippant here but this really shows a continued western misunderstanding of how people in places like Afghanistan live.
And even if they did all of that, what good is it exactly? Is China out of resources in China and now will build mountain passes and teach Afghanis how to drive trucks and all of that to mine resources? Sure sounds like nation building to me.
And why would the Taliban agree to this anyway? They could just do the mining themselves.
Eh, China is the new red scare. It is actually twice that since they still have communist in their official name. I jest, but only a little.
I agree with you. It is not a straightforward and foregone conclusion. Taliban has clearly shown that it can play a very long game. That said, so can Chinese.
The modus operandi of China is employment for their people. In almost every country they've lent money for infrastructure, they've brought in their own construction people.
