Carbon zero transportation is a two step process: electrify the transportation and green the electricity. They both have to be done, and they both take a long time. If each side waits for the other, neither gets done.
At current prices, renewables are the cheapest energy sources, any increased demand for energy will bias the electricity mix greener.
> If each side waits for the other, neither gets done.
But for it to get done, we essentially have to junk all current IC vehicles, and build replacements. My question was whether or not that actually puts us ahead CO2/climate-wise.
Vehicles are being replaced every year. Think of buying a new ICE car as a subscription to fossil fuels, as you can't easily make fuel for ICE engine from renewable energy.
The reverse is true - you can make electricity from fossil fuels, if really needed.
I interpret Tim Bray's "everyone should stop driving fossil vehicles starting now" as a conclusion, that EVs are usable enough for most personal transport needs and if buying a new car, make it an EV.
There seem to be several TV series that show people converting ICE cars to electric, the cost seems comparable to buying new electric cars but with a lot less environmental impact.
At current prices, renewables are the cheapest energy sources, any increased demand for energy will bias the electricity mix greener.