While I agree with his statement that the first calculations where rather pessimistic, he forgets to mention, that number is MUCH MUCH higher per capita than their Scandinavian neighbors.
- Sweden 14500ish dead out of 10M population
- Denmark 2550ish dead out of 5,8M
- Norway 800ish dead out of a pop of 5,4M
- Finland 1000ish dead out of 5,5M citizen
So 3x worse outcome than Denmark (per capita), 7ish-8ish x worse outcome than Finland and Norway.
Also multiply the 14500ish by 32 (due to size difference) to get comparable to the US and you are around 465.000 dead which is roughly speaking 2/3rds of the US death rate..
To follow up, Denmark (where I live) locked down early and hard, but we have been cautiously been opening up again (just today another set of lockdownisque rules where trashed), and if every thing goes as planned we are back to fully open in 8 weeks..
Sweden made the same mistake as New York state by putting known Covid19 carriers into nursing homes, which led to the logical outcome of infecting and killing the medically at-risk.
- Sweden 14500ish dead out of 10M population
- Denmark 2550ish dead out of 5,8M
- Norway 800ish dead out of a pop of 5,4M
- Finland 1000ish dead out of 5,5M citizen
So 3x worse outcome than Denmark (per capita), 7ish-8ish x worse outcome than Finland and Norway.
Also multiply the 14500ish by 32 (due to size difference) to get comparable to the US and you are around 465.000 dead which is roughly speaking 2/3rds of the US death rate..