> the weakening of the US Navy (due to budget cuts planned out decades ago
Relative to the height of the Cold war, sure, but the US Navy still has 5 times more ( and much bigger) aircraft carriers than the next navy; and leads the other navies with similar multiples in submarines, various types of ships, airplanes, rocket and anti-rocket capabilities etc. etc.
The US Navy has a decent-ish chance in an engagement with the Chinese Navy for at least the next few decades, assuming the engagement takes place outside of the range of the Chinese air force.
> The US Navy has a decent-ish chance in an engagement with the Chinese Navy for at least the next few decades, assuming the engagement takes place outside of the range of the Chinese air force.
The issue with Taiwan is that any realistic engagement of China vs Taiwan means that Chinese Navy is in 100% support of its Air Force.
You're right. US Navy still dominates China outside of its missile / air force range. But China likely sees an opportunity to make a move vs Taiwan within the next 10 years (before this US Navy issue is patched up with the next generation of warships).
The next stage for China vs US potential combat isn't Madagascar... its Taiwan. A nation that's well within range of China's cruise missiles, air force, and mainland (so easily resupplying Chinese Navy). The US would be fighting with significant disadvantages if a Taiwan war were to ever break out.
Relative to the height of the Cold war, sure, but the US Navy still has 5 times more ( and much bigger) aircraft carriers than the next navy; and leads the other navies with similar multiples in submarines, various types of ships, airplanes, rocket and anti-rocket capabilities etc. etc.
The US Navy has a decent-ish chance in an engagement with the Chinese Navy for at least the next few decades, assuming the engagement takes place outside of the range of the Chinese air force.