But, from the article's initial proposition - "You do know that the Germans have a sequential numbering system (1, 2, …, n)" and in giving historical context "On investigation, it became clear that the serial numbers were sequential, without gaps."
So, yes, without that being a prior, of course it's more likely that that outlier is a strange one off, and you'd do better to exclude it from your data set (and/or continue to investigate, because it's NOT at all clear that the serial numbers are sequential yet).
But, that context and ordering matters. Assume just the opposite series of events - you started by finding 50 tanks with serial numbers [1, 100]. And then three or four months go by you didn't get any tank serials sent to you. And then you get 1234. 1258 tanks seems really reasonable at that point (and, in fact, would fit the reality; the Germans were producing ~256 tanks per month per the article).
But, from the article's initial proposition - "You do know that the Germans have a sequential numbering system (1, 2, …, n)" and in giving historical context "On investigation, it became clear that the serial numbers were sequential, without gaps."
So, yes, without that being a prior, of course it's more likely that that outlier is a strange one off, and you'd do better to exclude it from your data set (and/or continue to investigate, because it's NOT at all clear that the serial numbers are sequential yet).
But, that context and ordering matters. Assume just the opposite series of events - you started by finding 50 tanks with serial numbers [1, 100]. And then three or four months go by you didn't get any tank serials sent to you. And then you get 1234. 1258 tanks seems really reasonable at that point (and, in fact, would fit the reality; the Germans were producing ~256 tanks per month per the article).