Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

> In theory, Kelly is optimal...

It's optimal for one utility function (log of future $), but that doesn't make it necessarily optimal for everything, right?



That’s a great callout as well: it’s optimal for maximizing your expected growth in the long term, but does carry significant volatility. That’s fine for an emotionless immortal robot investor, but as we’re human.

If we’re close to an investment goal, like saving a house downpayment or retiring, the calculus is quite different. Even outside that, loss aversion is a real thing and we’re likely happier trading some upside for being able to sleep at night.


It is optimal for the growth of your wealth in the long run. The issue of utility only comes into play if you have to bet a finite amount of times and you don’t plan to or cannot live forever.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: