>Yes, except for places experiencing increasing real property values, real property taxes aren’t increasing.
Unless you're referencing the California instances in which Prop 13 protects homeowners from increases of more than 2%, I'm not sure what you mean. Nationwide property taxes increase over 5% YoY, while general inflation was far less [0]
IIUC, you're arguing that we should expect that ^^^ outcome, because of the political/economic dynamics you mentioned earlier.
My understanding is that, except in towns/cities undergoing gentrification, U.S. municipal property taxes are pretty constant (modulo inflation).
So it sounds like the outcome predicted by that theory probably isn't happening. Wouldn't this cast doubt on the theory?