He makes an interesting/controversial point:
"It still takes ten years to become a success, web or no web."
...
"Listen instead to your real customers, to your vision and make something for the long haul."
I wonder how many people doing startups are prepared for success to take ten years.
I've heard that it takes 10 years to achieve true mastery of any craft. He said it took ten years to "become a success", but that isn't limited to just one company. Personally, I plan on trying and failing as many times as necessary over the next 10 years until I get to be really good.
10 years to achieve true mastery? Sounds about right. I've also often said it takes 3 years to "get dangerous," in both senses. My data is from studying and teaching music.
On an even shorter time frame: once you get to the point that you're enjoying what you're doing, the only one who can stop you is yourself.
I wouldn't look too far into the number "ten years" and think it applies to every single startup. Obviously, this isn't true, and I think he's using it more as just a way of saying "it takes a while."
Right, "ten years" probably means "way longer than you think". Or maybe he does really mean about ten years.
Anyway, it's an interesting path to the ten years. Maybe you've just (http://www.paulgraham.com/bronze.html) got a bad idea that's not worth hanging on for ten years as it'll always suck. Probably an early milestone is to get (http://www.paulgraham.com/fundraising.html) ramen profitable. If you can't get there in n years, reboot (?)
Maybe (http://www.paulgraham.com/bio.html) some comp sci phd angel/vc former founder will figure out the algorithm to optimize the ten years to reduce it by an order of magnitude.
I wonder how many people doing startups are prepared for success to take ten years.