Think about how much the iPhone improved over 9 years of sales from the original in 2007 to whatever model they had in 2016.
Given how many manufacturers are jumping on the electric bandwagon, the extremely fast decline in the cost of batteries, the rate of progress to date AND these kinds of laws to give some good motivation, I think it's very safe to say the electric vehicles on sale 9 years from now (2030) will be vastly superior to today's offerings.
Yes, it's probably true, the iPhone of 9 years ago probably collected a lot less information, and the cars of 9 years from now will also collect a lot more.
However, less on the original point and more on yours, the iPhone of 9 years ago didn't have that much worse of a battery than today. Batteries have technically been progressing, but it's slow.
And, aside from the range like the GP said, will still be fully tracking all usage. Why does the car manufacturer get to see and sell my location information?
Aren't electric vehicles a lot simpler conceptually? No engine, no transmission, etc. Maybe someone could start a company that made the equivalent of a battery with wheels for very cheap.
> Maybe someone could start a company that made the equivalent of a battery with wheels for very cheap.
Those cars exist in India and China, but for some reason Americans don't want to buy them. It could be that outside of the techie bubble, nobody cares very much about this problem, and within the techie bubble, most people stop caring the moment that they can be the first person on their street to own a Tesla.
>on sale 9 years from now (2030) will be vastly superior to today's offerings
I hope you are right. Discounting the environmental and societal impact of mining the materials needed for these advancements and the electrical generation, my concern is selfish. We drive for vacations and sometimes push 12 hours a day. A quick fill up of gas in the minivan seems better than an hour or two of charging.
Others have mentioned hybirds alleviate the long distance concern. There are minivan and larger vehicles already using hybird technology, so it should work out. It is such a wild change to think about.
The environmental and societal impact of EVs are largely localized. The impacts of internal combustion engines have been almost entirely externalized. While EVs will still have some negative impacts, it's a huge improvement over the status quo.
Given how many manufacturers are jumping on the electric bandwagon, the extremely fast decline in the cost of batteries, the rate of progress to date AND these kinds of laws to give some good motivation, I think it's very safe to say the electric vehicles on sale 9 years from now (2030) will be vastly superior to today's offerings.