On: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

[epicureanideal]

So about 0.3% of the price of an SF Bay Area home?

At least in this area, the price has a lot more to do with NIMBYism than the cost of materials.

[braunshedd → epicureanideal]

There's essentially no new housing being built in the Bay in general, so I suppose the cost of lumber is moot.

[ixacto → epicureanideal]

This is the real problem IMO. We need more dense condos like Chicago, where the median condo price is 268k versus other large cities where it is almost double that.

This is just people being taking advantage of their housing...investment/tax shelter/savings plan that is bidding the price up.

Look at something like this zero red flags that I can see for $219k that is much cheaper than in most other large cities, housing doesn't have to be this expensive. https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1706-W-Huron-St-60622/unit...

[almost_usual → ixacto]

Condo prices have gone down in the Bay Area since COVID. The problem is everyone wants a SFH suburban lifestyle in the Peninsula, Marin, or East Bay hills. That’s a luxury and you’re going to pay a premium for it.

[epicureanideal → almost_usual]

But are still EXTREMELY expensive relative to most of the US, not because of materials costs.

[almost_usual → epicureanideal]

If you had the money and power to solve this problem how much housing would you build in the Bay Area?

[ixacto → almost_usual]

I'd make SF and all the large costal cities look like this https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a4/Hong_Kon.... That is enough density to have a condo cost 100k instead of 500k. Sure there will be a decent amount of taxes and HOA fees, but that would turn housing into a utility rather than a government subsidy for the middle class. Also you could wire fibre to each unit and solve the internet speed problem for these NIMBYified cities.

[souprock → ixacto]

Why must it be "need more dense condos like Chicago" when you can just move to Chicago?

If other large cities change to be more like Chicago, then you might change your opinion of them.

[hippich → epicureanideal]

Problem is - lumber prices are about the same across the country. In SF Bay area and some middle of nowhere, where such lumber increase makes a significant difference.

[throwaway0a5e → hippich]

Lumber prices are not the same nation wide because lumber is not thaaaaat expensive to manufacture per volume/weight so shipping costs to get it from mill the mill to the end user are a larger and larger portion of cost the farther from the mills you get.

[hippich → throwaway0a5e]

I just compared prices of 2x4 and construction grade plywood between Lowes location in SF area and Austin area. They are pretty much the same. I agree, distance from the mill will matter, but not to a significant degree (not 3 times for sure)

[akiselev → hippich]

IME big box store prices are 2-3x that of a real lumberyard for low volumes. I don't think they're reflective of the rest of the market, especially at high volumes. When you're talking an order of 100 or 1000+ board feet from a lumberyard, it's a completely different story. I've had situations where the last mile delivery fee alone was 25% of the cost, not including the cost to get it to the lumberyard in the first place.

[ComputerGuru → akiselev]

That’s besides the point. Divide both numbers by 2-3x and the argument stands.