Author doesn't mention rainfall impact at all - but my understanding is if AMOC shuts down completely (highly unlikely) UK's arable land drops significantly, because of the reduction in predicted rainfall.
Author also sounds a bit hand-wavey with the claim that '50% of heat comes from east-ward wind patterns, the other 50% comes from stationary waves of atmospheric flow'.
I guess it's feasible that the gulfstream provides zero warmth to the air above it as it flows north and around the UK, but this is a challenging claim.
It's odd the author didn't put in any estimates on temperature change from AMOC shutdown -- elsewhere I'm seeing an expected average delta in the south of perhaps 1 or 2 C, and in the north of Scotland, up to 4C.
I found author's actual paper [1] but that doesn't mention rainfall either, and I can't find any estimated ranges on temperature impacts for the UK.
Author doesn't mention rainfall impact at all - but my understanding is if AMOC shuts down completely (highly unlikely) UK's arable land drops significantly, because of the reduction in predicted rainfall.
Author also sounds a bit hand-wavey with the claim that '50% of heat comes from east-ward wind patterns, the other 50% comes from stationary waves of atmospheric flow'.
I guess it's feasible that the gulfstream provides zero warmth to the air above it as it flows north and around the UK, but this is a challenging claim.
It's odd the author didn't put in any estimates on temperature change from AMOC shutdown -- elsewhere I'm seeing an expected average delta in the south of perhaps 1 or 2 C, and in the north of Scotland, up to 4C.
I found author's actual paper [1] but that doesn't mention rainfall either, and I can't find any estimated ranges on temperature impacts for the UK.
[1] http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/pubs/Seager_etal...