A bit part of the lottery is that everyone knows that it's unlikely, but most people are capable of comprehending just how unlikely it is. Most people would probably say it's like "one-in-a-million", when it's really hundreds of times worse than that. People are just bad at understanding really big numbers. Everyone still feels like, "I know it won't, but it could happen to me," when even if you bought a lottery ticket every single week for your entire adult life, it would take you over a thousand lifetimes for you to finally have a 1% chance to win the lottery.
I think people at least initially have better grasps on things like 50-50 chances or 10% chances, even if other gambling fallacies kick in the more you play them.
I think people at least initially have better grasps on things like 50-50 chances or 10% chances, even if other gambling fallacies kick in the more you play them.