You honestly think reduced police presence has no effect? If you put that in context with race-based rhetoric characterising Asians as part of "white supremacy", it makes as much sense as the other thing. How about a third hypothesis: this idea went viral and people figure they can get away with it now. Or a fourth: the people doing this probably should already have been in jail in many cases.
Because people think they can get away with it now? You think people are sitting around waiting for the day they can get away with seriously injuring a senior citizen?
I think this is about xenophobia and hatred towards China as a source of the coronavirus, amplified by the former president’s rhetoric about the “kung-flu” or “China virus” as he repeatedly called it.
As a matter of fact, some people do wait around for moments when they can get away with violent crime. I've met them and this is how some people think (maybe even most violent people are this way). During one weekend of the protests in Chicago this summer, there was a weekend with over 20 murders, which happened partly because people knew all the police were downtown and it was a good moment to settle scores (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52984535). I agree with you this could have something to do with the rhetoric you mention, just as well as other political rhetoric. It could also just have to do with virality, the impression of lawlessness/lack of repercussions, the "fun" of being violent, and people in public who shouldn't be. In the end, if you shoot a woman in the head with a flare gun, I'm not too concerned whether you claim you did it because "of the president's rhetoric", "to fight white/asian supremacy", or "to steal her pocketbook for economic motivations". I'm more concerned that the police arrest you and the government locks you up until you know better. Anything else looks like more deflection of responsibility to me.
A while ago, in my youth, I worked longside guys who had been let out. Yes, they do seek weaknesses and they know what they are. They know the vulnerable population and the population that does not fight. Example, they would hit richer folks for certain things because they would not get chased as they would more than likely have insurance. They had many stories to tell. They go to SF and they avoid DC (San Mateo Co.). It's not xenophobia or wealthphobia or whatnotphobia. No it's easyphilia.