> Of course this may reduce their margins. But there is one cure for it: send more spam!
Actually, that's not true. The cost of sending spam is very low, but it is NOT zero. If the profits are lowered (by making payments difficult to collect) and the costs raised (by better blocking of mail, forcing botnets and such) until these cross, then spamming will become unprofitible. Then it will rapidly disappear.
Once killed off, like an infection it may STAY gone. The anti-spam infrastructure we have put in place over the years (spam filtering tools, blacklists of open relays, etc) would remain. The infrastructure (like affiliate programs) that supports the spammers would die off. That would make it MUCH harder for someone to begin spamming again.
then spamming will become unprofitible. Then it will rapidly disappear.
Unlikely. Spamming has already been less and less profitable over the years margin-wise to the point that for many spammers, it is actually not profitable. Yet, for every spammer that drops it because it is no longer profitable, another dozen n00bs join the trade.
The idea of killing a few key companies/guys will significantly lower spam is a sexy idea but little else, IMO. In short-term, getting rid of a key component that kills a third of spam may help. But it doesn't take a long time for someone else to fill in those shoes using different technologies/products/banks.
I actually dabbled in this industry for a little bit during my teenage years so I have some insights though some of it is obviously outdated. The only thing I am still confident of is that there are more spammers today and margins are lower than when I was messin with it.
Based on your personal experience, you may well know more about this industry than I do. But I certainly had the impression that, while spamming is LESS profitable today, that it still had a net-positive income flow. This impression came from sources like this: http://www.icsi.berkeley.edu/pubs/networking/2008-ccs-spamal... (admittedly, 3 years old).
A brief dip into unprofitability will not destroy the industry because (as you say) another dozen n00bs will join. But I believe that an extended period (say, a year or two) might kill it off -- the "n00bs" could not operate without the extensive infrastructure of tools and those WOULD be damaged or destroyed by unprofitibility.
Actually, that's not true. The cost of sending spam is very low, but it is NOT zero. If the profits are lowered (by making payments difficult to collect) and the costs raised (by better blocking of mail, forcing botnets and such) until these cross, then spamming will become unprofitible. Then it will rapidly disappear.
Once killed off, like an infection it may STAY gone. The anti-spam infrastructure we have put in place over the years (spam filtering tools, blacklists of open relays, etc) would remain. The infrastructure (like affiliate programs) that supports the spammers would die off. That would make it MUCH harder for someone to begin spamming again.