Is there a way to predict which SPACs will merge with which startups?
It seems like if you had knowledge of this and you could predict a highly profitable business merging with a SPAC, you could get in at the ground floor for incredible and almost immediate share price growth.
I wouldn't invest in 23andMe, but I would invest in Stripe. Which SPAC will it merge with?
I didn't have "insider information" to make $300k on Gamestop. The evidence was in the open.
Right now I'm thinking that you might be able to connect the dots between SPAC owners / founders, their investment prospectus, and similar business they've dealt with.
I wonder if anyone's already done this research and found correlations.
> I didn't have "insider information" to make $300k on Gamestop. The evidence was in the open.
What evidence? You followed a trend, and the more people followed that trend, the higher the price, the more it was talked about in wider circles, the more people got in it etc.
It's just a legal version of a ponzi scheme.
This has nothing to do with predicting a hard fact such as which two entities will merge in the future.
Just like how everyone assumed that Virgin Acquisition was going to buy Virgin Orbital (both owned by Branson)...but instead will acquire 23andme instead?
As it turns out, you really can't connect the dots between SPAC owners and the company the SPAC will acquire.
No, there really isn't. I do think SPACs will sometimes seed the internet hype machine if they have a target in mind though. This particular one has been discussed a few times and doesn't seem to be a surprise to most. The problem is people (or more specifically holders of the SPAC) seem to often try to pump a particular SPAC on speculation for their gain.
For example reddit (along with twitter, stocktwits, seeking alpha, etc) was absolutely rife with posts about how "certain" PSTH was merging with Stripe. The DD was long, sock puppet accounts numerous, but sooo extremely thin it was hilarious. $CCIV is another example that has long been hyped to be merging with Lucid which has brought the value up 300% since inception and really no one has any idea if it's even truly on the table.
I think largely the problem currently with SPACs is there is so much interest that nearly any notable SPAC is growing in value no matter what info is out there, so it's another "stonks only go up" type situation with people just dumping money based on an internet whisper and somehow it ends up working.
> It seems like if you had knowledge of this and you could predict a highly profitable business merging with a SPAC, you could get in at the ground floor for incredible and almost immediate share price growth.
Take care to not fall victim of a pump & dump. Rumours about SPAC acquisitions seem to be in fashion recently and I wouldn't be surprised if SPAC owners focus on targeting retail since the whole WSB/GME thing started.
Check the SPAC subreddit and look at blogs that actually do analysis on the SPAC teams themselves. The best indicator is usually who runs the SPAC and their connections in SV + focus industry. But ultimately, you can't reliably predict it. You can do what I do and shotgun investment in several promising SPACs and hope that one hits in a reasonable amount of time (I'm 1/4 so far this year).
It's pretty hard to predict when a SPAC will merge, that's basically what your risk is: the time value of your money. However if you're buying at NAV, there's almost no downside risk other than that.
It seems like if you had knowledge of this and you could predict a highly profitable business merging with a SPAC, you could get in at the ground floor for incredible and almost immediate share price growth.
I wouldn't invest in 23andMe, but I would invest in Stripe. Which SPAC will it merge with?