I'm not sure I understand. You can take either side of the trade you want, so if you think you've determined how lopsided it is, why aren't you doing the opposite trade?
Even if you get the direction right you might not make money.
You just have to be more correct about one thing than you are wrong about all the others.
For example, if you buy 10yr calls and term structure blows out as the market sells off, you make way more on vega than you lose on delta.
It's a neat trick when you get the timing, direction, and magnitude correct, but it's not necessary to pull off the hat trick in order to make money.
I'm not sure I understand. You can take either side of the trade you want, so if you think you've determined how lopsided it is, why aren't you doing the opposite trade?