> "I think it probably works THIS way based on how I imagined up the entire industry in my head"
That's how every opinion anyone's ever had works. Everyone has a mental model, which they use to understand the world. If you have a problem with the specifics, address them. Otherwise, you are simply appealing to authority.
Of course. But there's a difference between studying or being involved in an industry to formulate your model and being confident in that, and being confident in pure conjecture. Mental models are great and they're really all we have to understand the world, but they should be based in some kind of observation.
That's how every opinion anyone's ever had works. Everyone has a mental model, which they use to understand the world. If you have a problem with the specifics, address them. Otherwise, you are simply appealing to authority.