I think you're assuming that long-term goals can't change. Just because I have a goal to do X in ten years, that doesn't mean I am forcibly committed to reaching X even if I no longer want to.
Let's say I have a vague dream of becoming a sailor. Consider these four scenarios:
- Scenario A: I make it an explicit goal. In year 1, I read some books, take a sailing class, and forgo some luxuries to start saving up for a boat. In year 2, I buy a boat and sail. Dream attained!
- Scenario B: I make no goal. In the absence of a concrete goal, I don't read or save in year 1. In year 2, I still long to sail but am no closer to getting there. Eventually I run out the clock on my life.
- Scenario C: I make it an explicit goal. In year 1, I read some books, take a sailing class, and forgo some luxuries to start saving up for a boat. In year 2, I decide I am no longer interested in sailing. I remove that long-term goal, and spend the money I saved on something else.
- Scenario D: I make no goal. In the absence of a concrete goal, I don't read or save in year 1. In year 2, I lose interest in sailing. Nothing gained, nothing lost.
The two failure modes are B and C. If you fail to pursue a long-term goal that doesn't change (B), you are eternally unfulfilled. If you pursue a dream that changes before you reach it (C), you have some lost opportunity cost for the work you put into that dream that is now not relevant.
For most people, the latter is a much smaller harm than the former. It's more rewarding to strive towards something meaningful even if it ends up not panning out than to abandon your dreams pre-emptively.
Of course, the ideal is A or D, but none of us have a time machine to determine who our future selves will become. So the only choice you can make today is A/C or B/D.
I think the problem with long term goals is not that your preferences may change but you don't update your goals. I think the problem is procrastination.
Consider this variation of your Scenario A: You make explicit goals to read 3 relevant books, take a sailing class, and save $10,000 for a boat. You find yourself in mid October having only read 1 book and saved up $2000. You end up not sailing until year 4 even though year 2 was certainly achievable.
A better variation of Scenario A: Breaking the big goal into smaller ones can prevent this type of procrastination. Instead of save $10000 by end of year, make 26 goals to save $385 every payday. Then make a goal to sign up for the sailing classes by June. Then based on that June date, decide to read book 1 by Feb 28, book two by April 30, and book 3 by June 30.
In the second variation, I assert you'd be much less likely to procrastinate to the point that your year end goal becomes unachievable.
Perhaps you assumed in Scenarios A and C would do that. Your post would make more sense that way. But I find most people do not do any breakdown. They'd just set the end of year results as the goal the reach a point where they realize it is impossible to achieve any of it.
Let's say I have a vague dream of becoming a sailor. Consider these four scenarios:
- Scenario A: I make it an explicit goal. In year 1, I read some books, take a sailing class, and forgo some luxuries to start saving up for a boat. In year 2, I buy a boat and sail. Dream attained!
- Scenario B: I make no goal. In the absence of a concrete goal, I don't read or save in year 1. In year 2, I still long to sail but am no closer to getting there. Eventually I run out the clock on my life.
- Scenario C: I make it an explicit goal. In year 1, I read some books, take a sailing class, and forgo some luxuries to start saving up for a boat. In year 2, I decide I am no longer interested in sailing. I remove that long-term goal, and spend the money I saved on something else.
- Scenario D: I make no goal. In the absence of a concrete goal, I don't read or save in year 1. In year 2, I lose interest in sailing. Nothing gained, nothing lost.
The two failure modes are B and C. If you fail to pursue a long-term goal that doesn't change (B), you are eternally unfulfilled. If you pursue a dream that changes before you reach it (C), you have some lost opportunity cost for the work you put into that dream that is now not relevant.
For most people, the latter is a much smaller harm than the former. It's more rewarding to strive towards something meaningful even if it ends up not panning out than to abandon your dreams pre-emptively.
Of course, the ideal is A or D, but none of us have a time machine to determine who our future selves will become. So the only choice you can make today is A/C or B/D.