It is so much easier to spot things in hindsight. We can all see the evidence that supports the conclusion.
Let's take Uber. Their core product is a social media app with mapping, tracking and billing features. It has burnt through an incredible amount of money trying to kill competitors, employing 20,000 or so people directly and claiming that a self-driving electric fleet will someday make them insanely profitable.
Market cap is up almost 80% in the last year.
Who's the idiot? The investor who believes that Uber will be insanely profitable in N years, or the investor who doesn't want any more exposure to Uber than as part of a whole-market index?
It's all easy looking backwards. If you went through the dot-com boom, bust, and the chaos in between, not so much. If it was easy, everyone would've bought Apple and Microsoft stock in the 80's and just let it ride.
