I hope the European version of Musk/SpaceX attempts a non-rocket based launch system. Whoever eventually surpasses SpaceX almost certainly won’t be doing so by chasing after SpaceX‘s strengths.
Do we have any feasible non-rocket options to do on Earth, though? Air-breathing first stage is all I can think of (but it's essentially still a rocket). Skyhooks and space elevators will have to wait for advances in materials science and will require orbital manufacturing capabilities. Launch loops seem to be too complicated either. Mini launch loops / big guns / other constructs that provide all kinetic energy at ground level won't work because of atmosphere density, and even if you had magic materials that'd survive hypersonic shocks and G forces, it'd still be a ridiculous waste of energy compared to rockets.
At this point I think we don't need anyone surpassing SpaceX, we just need more people copying them. In of itself, it'll drive launch costs further down.
> Do we have any feasible non-rocket options to do on Earth, though?
Not yet, no — but a decade ago we didn’t have powered landing and rapid reuse of first stages either. While that observation doesn’t guarantee future tech could (or should) be made, I am an optimist when it comes to tech.
One is an iteration on a proven design. One is a completely unknown new design. I’m not being defeatist, just pointing out that I’m not sure the latter is easier than chasing SpaceX’s strengths.
We had air-dropped spaceships [1] in the early 1960s. It's how some of the first American astronauts were made. It's proven tech but just hasn't had a practical application in the last half-century. Some kind of air-dropped passenger ferry could be imagined that gets people to something like a Starship in orbit, or maybe a space hotel.
There are a couple of projects along these lines right now, both involving Burt Rutan's Scaled Composites [2,3].
Stratolaunch went through several iterations of spacecraft, at one point I believe it was even going to drop a SpaceX rocket! With Paul Allen's passing not sure what the plans are currently.
