I mean, maybe, but it'd be more substantial if you could explain what you base those on or what you actually mean. Otherwise it's as good as scapulimancy .
Take it for what it is. Many "long time" crypto traders are feeling this way currently. We could be completely wrong.
There are many indicators to support and disprove this hypothesis. Markets are just social constructs, so evidence based approach doesn't work that well. So yeah, scapulimancy but with a touch of self fulfilled profecy, which makes it much more interesting.
Over Bitcoin's history, each peak was several times higher than the previous peak. Of course this pattern can't repeat forever but there's room for it to repeat one or two more times before Bitcoin would pass gold.
With Larry Fink and hedgies involved, Bitcoin only needs, at most, a couple hundred billion to prop up prices well beyond $20k-$25k. Small market, which Fink noted.
$100k would not be an entirely unexpected milestone sooner rather than later.
Small and volatile market driven by bots can have unexpected and illogical behavior... until the correction when those who bough at half the price want to cash in.
As is often the case, bitcoin's volatility has been overstated:
“In our long-term study of bitcoin, we had compared bitcoin correlations to traditional asset classes and now see another interesting recent trend with its volatility,” according to Gurbacs. “In our current volatility research, we compared the 90 day and year to date volatility—as measured by their daily standard deviation as of November 13, 2020—of bitcoin against the constituents of the S&P 500 Index. We found that bitcoin has exhibited lower volatility than 112 stocks of the S&P 500 in a 90 day period and 145 stocks YTD.”
Well, for sure, since 2013 it's proven to us that it's not currency as nobody uses it for that purposes - it's a speculation tool, something like a fantasy commodity, which wastes tons of energy to exist.
I’m just curious whether you know how blockstack in the “about” section of your profile relates to Bitcoin.... That’s just one of the examples illustrative of some sort of Bitcoin’s value outside being a currency - which coincidentally, hasn’t been the goal of core devs for quite a while.
I do try different things. And that's why I say with authority that Bitcoin is useless. Unlike most fanbois, I've been mining Bitcoins before it was cool.
Hey, I re-read your initial message and I agree. My reply makes no sense. These short term movements are definitely influenced by bots, fragmented liquidity and issues trading venues.
Bitcoin->USD/any other real currency->car/beer/milk/microwave/house/coke
That's what "cashing out/in" means. Converting your investment into necessity, want or vice. No one desires investment vehicles. They desire using the investment vehicle to purchase a future item they can use.
With the important distinction that most investment vehicles represent tangible ownership (of equity in a company, of a debt obligation, of real estate, etc.)
Bitcoin exists primarily as something people buy in order to hopefully sell to someone else, all with the underlying value intangible and arguably nonexistent beyond scarcity.
I think this have everything to do with bitcoin’s name. Anyone not in crypto just think crypto=Bitcoin. It’s like Hoover or xerox. Everyone else thought too hard and tried to be too clever!
The price action is starting to look like 2013 or 2017, but this time the driver seem to be institutionals and large investors.