Touches on a symptom. The issue is surprisingly complex.
My sister has done workman's compensation insurance and remarked that all the welders were out of work. (or a large number of them). I mentioned that there was a welder shortage in California and she suggested I mention that on some of the forums where they hang out. What I discovered was that there was a number of vocal proponents who argued they wouldn't work in California for the shit rate that was being offered. Instead they would rather be out of work than devalue their time.
So its a fair point, if enough skilled people stay out of the workforce then the economic demand will cause prices to rise to meet the market price. In California its interesting that the tax payers take on that burden and the shortfall threatens the teachers who then jump on to TV ads with their persistent message of non-support.
The question of illegal immigrants came up too but if you look you will find that a skilled welder / carpenter / mason has opportunity in Mexico that they don't need to emigrate for, so its not the issue one might suspect.
You get substitution effects, people substituting unskilled or lightly skilled labor instead. This results in problems later but some of those people will go on to become more skilled which will increase the pool.
A couple of people have mentioned the 'status' question, but from an economic standpoint the pricing of wages should be based on the ability of the population to supply qualified labor not on how 'important' they perceive the job to be. Its not always done that way but it does take personal bias out of the valuation question.
Mike's comment that we need more people in the trades is also tempered by manufacturers who would rather 'fix by replacement' than 'fix by repair' their items. They see someone with a broken washing machine as a motivated buyer, not someone with a problem they can fix. It would be helpful if congress mandated that the information to fix things was made available for free. (think service manuals) While it would burden the manufacturer to write such manuals it would enable repairs and a 'green' industry of keeping equipment running rather than in the dump.
I was hoping that one of the things that would come out of the Auto-melt-down would have been a vehicle that was bare bones, dead simple to repair, and inexpensive. There is demand for such a vehicle but no one is looking to meet it yet.
So "we need more skilled tradesman" as a call to arms has a number of things that it carries with it. I didn't see that the complexity or at least the interconnectivity of it all has been well represented to Congress.
The welder's union is the good kind of union, a guild that ensures that every licensed welder is thoroughly competent. That restricts supply and keeps wages high.
As an occasional employer of welders, I appreciate their union. Bad welding is really dangerous, and you can't tell the difference by casual inspection, so I'm happy to pay a premium for certified welders.
"The question of illegal immigrants came up too but if you look you will find that a skilled welder / carpenter / mason has opportunity in Mexico that they don't need to emigrate for, so its not the issue one might suspect."
I don't think the issue is with ILLEGAL immigrants, just immigrants. Trades are something everyone can get into either by just starting entry level or learn for very cheap (and they may have learned back in the country of origin). They are also willing to work for much less because they know they don't have the money to go to a college and get a higher education to obtain a higher paying/less laborious job. So they are very happy to take a moderate paying job and will work for less than someone who feels they should make more because they may have had the opportunity to pursue another career.
A friend of mine is a landscaper and became one when he moved out of southern california and made good money. Moving back here to southern california though he had to change professions because he could barely make minimum wage doing that here. His only option if he wants to return to that profession is to go get a degree to become a landscape architect.
That's simply not true -- there is a reason why trades have apprenticeships, journeyman, and master levels. The fact that you can put a toilet in doesn't make you a master plumber. Immigrant labor floods the low end of the market and starves off the supply of new laborers to the higher end because there's no career path for an illegal, casual worker. That's why a skilled master plumber often can get away with charging $150/hr.
Frankly, white collar jobs like IT are if anything, easier than most trade jobs. Get me someone who can read at a high school level with a reasonable work ethic, and I'll show you a very good IT Pro in 3-5 years. Ditto for programming.
...a vehicle that was bare bones, dead simple to repair, and inexpensive...
That vehicle is anything built before the ~1970s. They're plentiful, and not many people want them. :-)
(I don't believe that there's a demand for a modern, bare-bones car. There's a demand for ever cheaper, air conditioned cars with power windows, intermittent wipers, power steering, etc. though)
I still don't understand why people seem to think that modern cars are so difficult to work on compared to old junk. The onboard diagnostics is standardized and pretty good on most cars; that makes obvious many of your computer problems, timing problems and fuel/air problems.
I mean, most of my experience is working on fuel-injected stuff... but have you ever tried to rebuild a carb? it's damn difficult to get right, and there's no computer telling you when it's correct; you have to essentially guess.
Having done extensive work on both old ('64 Ford Falcon, '68 Ford LTD) and new ('99 Eclipse, '00 S4) old cars are WAY easier to work on.
The first issue is simplicity and access. Old cars have big engine bays with everything spread out, easy to see, easy to get at. There are very few wires and it's pretty obvious (to a gearhead) what each component, wire, hose, etc... does. New cars have way more "stuff" packed into way less space. You can't see most things, and can't get at most things. There's a million wires, mostly run through harnesses, and plugged into various computers, etc...
Rebuilding a carb, while not easy, is easier than trying to diagnose if your poorly running engine is because of: bad MAF, bad O2 sensor(s) (some cars have 4-6 of these), bad O2 sensor wires (good luck tracking those through the various wire looms, etc...), bad computer(s), bad injector(s), bad FP, etc... Troubleshooting a throttle cable is easy compared to issues with a drive-by-wire system.
New cars are safer, perform better, handle better, etc... but working on them is a pain.
Yes but even with modern cars you still need all the mechanical things, and things get way beyond a multimeter and a soldering iron on modern cars pretty quickly. There are many black-box computers, many complex sensors, thousands of wires that are next-to-impossible to trace/track through wire looms, the firewall, etc... I'm handy with a multimeter and a soldering iron, but still:)
You just need a diagram...I replaced all the wiring on a 1993 Mazda 626 from the front bumper to the dash. 4 big looms. If you have the "real" shop manual tracing problems is easy...not the Haynes or Chiltons (I have the original shop manuals for 2 of my 4 cars, including the electrical supplements, all wire color codings and methods to test every sensor are in the books.
I will not argue that fixing the main relay on my father's 1962 Thunderbird was way easier (I won't even get into the difference between dropping the fuel tank vs. a newer car) I believe for the most part newer cars are not much harder to work on. I really like what Volkswagen did with their VAG-Com stuff, really makes troubleshooting easy...like stupid easy, plus it interfaces with the laptop for datalogging.
1986 and 1990 Honda Civics: a PITA: just no space to turn a wrench in the engine compartment. Replacing a radiator took an absurd amount of time (and oh my aching back!)
1998 Toyota Sienna: replacing the radiator (w/engine cold) took 30 minutes the first time, 15 the second and third. My 13yo son displayed some interest so we did it an extra time :-). Changing the rear-cyl-bank O2 sensor (wedged against the firewall and crossmember) was a PITA.
1995 Camry w/same V6 engine as above Sienna: changing the same rear-bank O2 sensor was a breeze (bigger engine compartment).
Access is the key.
BTW I own two 1973 Toyota trucks, bought because they're simple to work on and exempt from CA smog testing (points ignition might survive the anticipated solar EMP!). And I agree that working with carbs is a black art with minimal feedback available, and EFI (real-time feedback!) is a major advance. Maybe EFI engines will "find their way" into these trucks :-)
my experience has been that the ease with which mechanical work can be done is directly proportional to the quality of your manual.
During the first .com, I owned a '92 bmw 325is. Fun car, but don't take it to a mechanic. I mean, parts weren't /that/ much more expensive, but mechanic time and parts markup was, I assume for the "well, if you can afford a bmw, you can help pay for my kid's braces" effect.
First I got the Chilton's brand "book of lies" and yeah, figuring out how to do even simple mechanical things was pretty difficult. I ended up wiring a bunch of stuff in with 24awg wire.
Later I bought the 'bently publishing' manual for the thing, and god damn. everything was really simple, and it all fit perfectly.
I know some people have gone from EFI to carbs on some motorcycles (KTM's early EFI offerings being the few I'm familiar with). I'd imagine it would be possible to go the other way, although I'm unsure of the difficulty of it.
"I mean, most of my experience is working on fuel-injected stuff... but have you ever tried to rebuild a carb? it's damn difficult to get right, and there's no computer telling you when it's correct; you have to essentially guess."
I tell mechanics around me this all the time (North Idaho)...I personally can rebuild and troubleshoot fuel injection with no issues, I have no idea how to tune a carb. Why? Simply because I haven't had to do that yet. People seem to be scared of anything with a computer, its always the ECU they replace first for some reason...usually the problem is a sensor or vacuum leak (from my experience with things).
Older cars are easier to work on because you typically have more room and fewer custom tools, plus you need very little electronics knowledge. I was an electronics tech before I started working on my own cars so I guess that helps.
In Western Europe, the built-for-developing-countries, ultra-cheap, barebone Dacia cars are a tremendous success. There is definitely a strong demand for 8000 euros sedans with a large trunk.
My sister has done workman's compensation insurance and remarked that all the welders were out of work. (or a large number of them). I mentioned that there was a welder shortage in California and she suggested I mention that on some of the forums where they hang out. What I discovered was that there was a number of vocal proponents who argued they wouldn't work in California for the shit rate that was being offered. Instead they would rather be out of work than devalue their time.
So its a fair point, if enough skilled people stay out of the workforce then the economic demand will cause prices to rise to meet the market price. In California its interesting that the tax payers take on that burden and the shortfall threatens the teachers who then jump on to TV ads with their persistent message of non-support.
The question of illegal immigrants came up too but if you look you will find that a skilled welder / carpenter / mason has opportunity in Mexico that they don't need to emigrate for, so its not the issue one might suspect.
You get substitution effects, people substituting unskilled or lightly skilled labor instead. This results in problems later but some of those people will go on to become more skilled which will increase the pool.
A couple of people have mentioned the 'status' question, but from an economic standpoint the pricing of wages should be based on the ability of the population to supply qualified labor not on how 'important' they perceive the job to be. Its not always done that way but it does take personal bias out of the valuation question.
Mike's comment that we need more people in the trades is also tempered by manufacturers who would rather 'fix by replacement' than 'fix by repair' their items. They see someone with a broken washing machine as a motivated buyer, not someone with a problem they can fix. It would be helpful if congress mandated that the information to fix things was made available for free. (think service manuals) While it would burden the manufacturer to write such manuals it would enable repairs and a 'green' industry of keeping equipment running rather than in the dump.
I was hoping that one of the things that would come out of the Auto-melt-down would have been a vehicle that was bare bones, dead simple to repair, and inexpensive. There is demand for such a vehicle but no one is looking to meet it yet.
So "we need more skilled tradesman" as a call to arms has a number of things that it carries with it. I didn't see that the complexity or at least the interconnectivity of it all has been well represented to Congress.